Memphis vs. NC State Prediction: Gasparilla Bowl Preview

Why Memphis Will Win

The Tigers have one of the most efficient run games in the country. Despite Memphis’ winless November, that remains true with dual-threat Brendon Lewis under center. Lewis led the team with nine rushing touchdowns, but Sutton Smith was the most effective runner with three 100-yard games to his name. With Greg Desrosiers Jr. and Frank Pleasant also in the mix, N.C. State will have its hands full. The Tigers rank among the top 20 nationally in yards per carry and are tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns with 34 on the year.

Lewis is a capable passer, though not especially dynamic. Cortez Braham Jr. is far and away his top target, and they have a bond that dates back to the 2024 season at Nevada. Braham has hauled in half of Lewis’ passing touchdowns, though Jamari Hawkins is a more dangerous big-play threat. Protection has been an issue all season for Lewis, who’s been brought down 30 times. However, the Wolfpack finished second-to-last in the ACC in sacks, so he should be safe.

After holding its own on defense for much of the season, things have unraveled on that side of the ball for Memphis down the stretch. The Tigers’ secondary showed cracks against Tulane and East Carolina and struggled to slow down Navy in a home loss on Thanksgiving. Memphis’ best showings of the season were shootout wins over Arkansas and USF; the Tigers might need a similar performance to pull off another upset.

Why N.C. State Will Win

The Wolfpack have the benefit of coaching staff stability, and momentum is on their side after wins over Florida State and UNC to wrap up the regular season. Bailey may ultimately depart in the transfer portal — it was recently reported that running back Hollywood Smothers intends to transfer — but he appears intent on playing in the Gasparilla Bowl. That gives N.C. State the upper hand on offense. And if tight end Justin Joly, Bailey’s top target, is available, Memphis will have its hands full.

Doeren’s group ran the gamut in the span of a month, upsetting Georgia Tech and being blown out by Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Miami. Any number of outcomes are on the table. The Wolfpack were a different team at home than they were on the road. Those struggles in away and neutral-site games date back to last season, and N.C. State will have to overcome those woes in Tampa.

Improved defensive play could help the Wolfpack right the ship in bowl games and away from Raleigh. After getting gashed by the gauntlet of the Irish, Panthers and Hurricanes, N.C. State held the Seminoles and Tar Heels under 20 points, forcing five turnovers across those two games. Pass defense is a weakness, but the Wolfpack are well suited to counter Memphis’ strong run game.

Gasparilla Bowl Prediction: N.C. State 31, Memphis 27

The Wolfpack have made their disdain for opt-outs clear ahead of their bowl game. And with last season’s close postseason loss to East Carolina still top of mind, Bailey and Co. will want to finish the year strong. The Tigers’ run game will keep them in striking distance, but N.C. State has too much firepower to pick against. And with Doeren’s defense appearing to have turned a corner, this could be the end of the bowl game skid.

ATS: Memphis +4.5
O/U: Under 58.5