Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame prediction, pick, odds for Saturday, Sept. 21

Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame Prediction

• Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame Pick: Under 44.5

My Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame best bet is on the under with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame Odds

Saturday, Sept. 21

3:30 p.m. ET

NBC

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame Point Spread: Miami (OH) +28 (-110) · Notre Dame -28 (-110)
• Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame Total: Over/Under 43.5
• Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame Moneyline: Miami (OH) +1800 · Notre Dame -5000

Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame Preview

Miami RedHawks Betting Preview: Can Gabbert Deliver?

Brett Gabbert has been around for a long time because he's had numerous seasons cut short due to injury. In fact, the most games he's played in a season is 10 (2021).

When he's healthy, he's the best quarterback in the MAC. In 2023, he played in the first eight games of the season before getting injured, but he had a 80.6 PFF passing grade and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.

He's a very accurate quarterback and really good at throwing intermediate passes. In 2023, he had a 86.1% catchable ball percentage, which was 23rd in college football.

Additionally, on throws between 10-19 yards, he had a 91.2 PFF passing grade. The biggest thing with Gabbert is he needs a clean pocket.

Miami (OH) is 122nd in terms of pass blocking and is throwing the ball at the second-highest rate in college football, which is a bad combination when facing an elite defensive front.

The defensive numbers have been less than encouraging. The biggest issue is tackling as the RedHawks have the worst PFF tackling grade in the country, which doesn't bode well for stopping Notre Dame's rushing attack.

The good news is that they haven't allowed many big plays. The RedHawks rank seventh in explosiveness allowed, which is big against a Notre Dame offense that ripped off an absurd number of big plays against Purdue.

The RedHawks should also be able to shut down Notre Dame's passing attack, which is limited with Riley Leonard. The RedHawks are top-50 in passing success rate and have only allowed 5.7 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Notre Dame run the ball at an extremely high rate Saturday.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Leonard Needs to Step up

Notre Dame's offense exploded against Purdue because of its rushing attack. Leonard is a dangerous runner and rushed for over 100 yards and three touchdowns.

Jeremiyah Love also ran for over 100 yards on only 10 carries. Notre Dame is at its best when it's running the ball, but outside of that one game against Purdue, the Fighting Irish have been pretty inefficient.

When they face a team that can somewhat stop the run, Leonard isn't able to beat opponents over the top. That's exactly what happened against Northern Illinois and has been a theme for him going back to his time at Duke.

Through three games this season, he's only averaging 5.5 yards per attempt and has a 52 PFF passing grade. Last year at Duke, he only completed four of 19 attempts that went over 20 yards in the air and had a 69.2 PFF passing grade on those attempts.

The star of Notre Dame's team has been the defense. The Fighting Irish are holding their opponents to only 4.3 yards per play and their secondary is shutting down the passing attack.

Notre Dame is 11th in passing success rate allowed and 10th in EPA/Pass allowed. I think Gabbert is going to have a really tough time moving the ball.

Miami (OH) vs Notre Dame

Matchup Analysis

Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame Pick & Prediction

Miami (OH) needs to protect Gabbert and keep a clean pocket, but I'm not sure the RedHawks will be able to do so.

Notre Dame's defense completely shut down anything Purdue was trying to do last weekend and has yet to let an opponent score more than 16 points.

The way to beat Notre Dame's defense is to run the ball effectively the way Northern Illinois did, but Miami isn't going to do that and has been very inefficient on the ground.

Notre Dame's defensive front was constantly pressuring Hudson Card last Saturday, and if it's able to do the same to Gabbert, I'm not sure how the RedHawks will move the ball or convert their scoring opportunities into points.

This is a really big spread to cover for Notre Dame's offense, which is limited by Leonard's inability to consistently throw the ball down the field. The RedHawks have been letting teams move the ball down the field, but the defense has held up inside the 40-yard line, so I like the value on under 44.5 points.

In addition, Chuck Martin unders have been very profitable since he's been the head coach at Miami (OH).

How to Watch Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame Betting Trends

• Miami (OH) is 0-2 against the spread in its first two games this season.
• The total has gone over in none of Miami (OH)'s first two games.
• Notre Dame is 2-1 ATS in its three games.
• The total has gone over in one of Notre Dame's three games.

About the Author

BJ Cunningham started betting in college and began his career with the Action Network as a part-time writer in January 2020, eventually becoming a full-time staff writer. He previously worked as a financial auditor for six years and now specializes in European soccer, college football, and baseball betting, focusing on advanced data. BJ is a regular contributor to the Action Network's podcasts and live betting shows, including Wondergoal, Payoff Pitch, and Green Dot Daily.

Follow Brad Cunningham @BJCunningham22 on Twitter/X.