Miami vs. Florida prediction, Week 1 college football picks, odds, lines

A pair of head coaches both in need of wins meet in The Swamp as Florida welcomes Miami in a marquee SEC vs. ACC matchup in college football's Week 1 action on Saturday.

Miami's Mario Cristobal and Florida's Billy Napier are both under .500 in two seasons at their respective schools and in need of a statement win for their impatient fan bases and boosters.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Miami vs. Florida picks, predictions

Florida has emerged as a perhaps unlikely favorite on the index, which projects the Gators to be the eventual winner in a majority 57.3 percent of its latest simulations.

That leaves Miami as the projected winner in the remaining 42.7 percent of the computer's models.

Miami is a 2.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

The index expects a very close game, projecting Florida to be just 0.5 points better than Miami on any field in their current iterations.

Miami is projected to win 8.1 games this season, ranking third in the ACC with a 10.4 percent chance to win the conference and an 18.8 percent shot to make the College Football Playoff.

Florida checks in at No. 11 on the index's SEC football power rankings, expected to win 5.9 games with a 58.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

Miami vs. Florida game time, schedule

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia (46 first-place votes)
2. Ohio State (15)
3. Oregon (1)
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Penn State
9. Michigan
10. Florida State
11. Missouri
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Oklahoma State
18. Kansas State
19. Miami
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. Kansas
23. USC
24. NC State
25. Iowa

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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