Michigan vs. Texas Prediction: Citrus Bowl Preview

Why Michigan Will Win The Citrus Bowl

After weeks of off-field distractions and turmoil, Michigan should be motivated to end some of that noise with a good showing in Orlando and get the post-Moore era started off on the right path.

Texas isn’t at full strength on defense, as a thin linebacker unit and secondary without star safety Michael Taaffe could be vulnerable to a Wolverines’ ground attack averaging 213.2 yards a game. Offensive lineman Giovanni El-Hadi is not expected to play, and this unit has an interim play-caller in Steve Casula with Chip Lindsey departing for Missouri. However, with the Longhorns suffering a few departures up front, Michigan can lean on running back Jordan Marshall and quarterback Bryce Underwood on the ground to control the line of scrimmage and keep the Texas’ offense on the sideline.

Underwood (2,229 passing yards and nine scores) had a solid freshman season but was hindered by limited weapons in the receiving corps. If the Wolverines are going to pull off the upset, staying out of long third downs are a must.

Michigan’s defense limited opponents to 18.7 points a contest in the regular season and was capable of wreaking havoc in the trenches with 72 tackles for a loss and 28 sacks. Coordinator Wink Martindale’s group also ranked fourth in the Big Ten against the run. This unit is likely to be down a couple of players for this matchup, but Texas is also missing its top two running backs. The Longhorns’ offensive line struggled all season in pass protection and had issues opening up holes in the ground game. Even though the Wolverines are expected to be shorthanded, a one-dimensional Texas’ offense is still going to have its hands full against Martindale’s defense. 

Why Texas Will Win The Citrus Bowl

Considering the preseason expectations, the ‘25 season was a disappointing one in Austin. However, Texas should still have plenty of motivation for Wednesday’s game, as the Longhorns try to earn victory No. 10, which would mark the program’s third straight double-digit win season.

The matchups in this game also favor Sarkisian’s squad. Michigan’s offense averages 6.3 yards per play, but the Texas defense (even with some question marks at linebacker) should match the strengths in the trenches. The Longhorns limited teams to just 98.1 yards a game on the ground and can stuff the Wolverines’ ground attack, forcing Underwood into obvious passing downs. Also, a secondary hit by opt outs is facing a Michigan passing game that ranked No. 15 in the Big Ten in per-game production.

The Texas offense also has an edge in a matchup where points could be at a premium. Quarterback Arch Manning didn’t quite meet preseason hype of a Heisman contender, but the sophomore finished ‘25 playing his best ball. In four November games, Manning connected on 62.2 percent of his throws for 1,147 yards and nine scores to just one pick. With Michigan’s defense missing a few key cogs, he should be able to target receivers Ryan Wingo (50 catches), Parker Livingstone (26), and Emmett Mosley V (23) downfield to move the ball through the air.  

Citrus Bowl Prediction: Texas 31, Michigan 20

When the bowl slate was announced, this showdown looked like one of the must-see matchups for the ‘25-26 postseason. Michigan’s turmoil took a bit of the appeal away, but the Wolverines and Longhorns meeting on the same field is still an outstanding bowl matchup. Both teams are dealing with opt outs and missing pieces. However, Texas should have an edge with Manning under center, along with a defense that should still have enough talent in the trenches to contain Michigan’s running attack.