Michigan vs. USC picks, predictions, Week 4 college football odds, lines

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By James Parks | Last updated Sep 17, 2024 6:56 PM ET

Two of college football's blue-blood schools meet on the same field in what is now a Big Ten game thanks to conference realignment, as No. 18 Michigan welcomes No. 11 USC on Saturday.

Michigan owns a 19-point loss to Texas on its home ground and is making an early change at quarterback, with Alex Orji stepping in for the turnover-prone Davis Warren going forward.

Miller Moss leads a Trojan attack tha t averages 7th nationally with 337 passing yards per game and is seeking its 2nd win against a ranked team after taking down LSU in the season opener.

Looking ahead to this week's matchup, let's check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer projection model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Michigan vs. USC picks, predictions

Expect a close game, but so far the computer models are siding with the visitors.

USC is expected to win the game in a majority 57.6 percent of the computer' s updated simulations, or 11,520 of the model's projections.

That leaves Michigan as the projected winner in the remaining 42.4 percent of sims.

The model forecasts that USC will by 2.9 points better than Michigan on the same field.

That wouldn't be enough to cover the spread, however.

That's because USC is a 6 point favorite against Michigan, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for USC at -225 and for Michigan at +190.

USC is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 36.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and is projected to win 9.1 games by the models.

Michigan will win 6.9 games this year, according to the index, which predicts it has a 6.7 percent shot at the playoff, seventh in the Big Ten.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projec ted point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.