Michigan Wolverines vs. Oklahoma Sooners prediction: Who wins, and why?

1. The No. 1 recruit’s first big test

All eyes are on Bryce Underwood in this game, the former top-ranked prospect in the most recent recruiting class who Michigan flipped from LSU late in the process in the hopes of resurrecting what last season was one of college football’s worst passing offenses.

So far, so good after one game, as Underwood looked poised as he went 21 of 31 passing for 251 yards and a  touchdown in the Wolverines’ two-score win against New Mexico, but naturally there’s always room for improvement after one start.

But going against the Sooners’ front line defense on the road in one of college football’s most raucous venues will be another matter entirely.

That front looks to be the strength of this team, presenting a wide array of disrupters around the line of scrimmage who can get serious push off the edge and generate interior pressure that will bother Underwood early on and upset his rhythm.

That unit is now under the direct management of head coach Brent Venables, one of the sport’s most respected and accomplished defensive strategists who won two national titles orchestrating Clemson’s historically-great defense.

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2. Oklahoma’s new offense?

Last season was one to forget for the Sooners moving the ball, not throwing for 300 yards in any game and ranking 130th nationally in plays of 20-plus yards.

The early returns on John Mateer, the transfer quarterback who excelled at Washington State a year ago, were promising as he not only eclipsed 300 yards, but nearly hit 400, finishing with 392 passing yards, the most for any OU quarterback in his debut ever, in a win over Illinois State last weekend.

That’s one piece of the puzzle that could finally be aligning into place for Oklahoma’s offense, a unit that was plagued by injuries and dismal protection all last fall.

But how well can the Sooners run the ball? Last week, not very well at all, posting just 3.2 yards per carry from their various backs, which notably didn’t include Jaydn Ott.

Except for one carry, Ott was absent from the game. OU’s star transfer rusher who came over from Cal this offseason is still dealing with the effects of a shoulder injury, so we’ll see whether the Sooners are comfortable employing him more against Michigan.

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3. At the line

Watch how the battle between Oklahoma’s rebuilt offensive line and Michigan’s promising defensive front alignment develops early on.

The quality of OU’s protection is still very much an open question. It was 129th in FBS in tackles for loss allowed and dead last nationally by allowing 50 sacks last season.

Michigan should be able to get consistent-enough pressure against the Sooners’ line, but has to be on guard preventing Mateer from improvising by making plays with his legs, and will have to close down any outside running lanes to prevent that happening.

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What the analytics say

Most football analytical models are favoring the SEC side of this matchup against its Big Ten counterpart.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from each team to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

That model gives the Sooners a slight edge over the Wolverines at home.

Oklahoma came out as the projected winner in 53.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That left Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Oklahoma is projected to be just 0.9 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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Who is favored?

The bookies are still favoring the home side, but not by as much as a touchdown still.

Oklahoma is a 5.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 44.5 points for the matchup.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -205 and for Michigan at +168 to win outright.

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Michigan vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins?

Bryce Underwood is walking into one of the toughest outs for any quarterback in college football, especially for one making his first career road start.

Oklahoma’s defensive front seven will be right there to make life very difficult for him, but the Wolverines have Justice Haynes in the backfield to mix up this offense and move the chains when necessary.

John Mateer will be hard-pressed to find some angles against a solid Michigan secondary, and he may not get the help he expects from the Sooners’ ground game in the absence of a sure thing back there and behind a line still yet to prove itself.

Points may be hard to come by until later in the game as both these defenses establish themselves, but the Sooners’ skill weapons are a little more proven and could come through with the decisive play when it counts.

College Football HQ picks...

• Oklahoma wins 23-20
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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