MSU Football's Extremely Difficult Outlook after UCLA Loss

This isn't a loss that should just be shrugged off. Since taking over as the team's head coach, Jonathan Smith is 8-10 overall and 3-9 against conference opponents. There is no on-field proof yet that Michigan State is on its way back to being a winning program again.

"I'm not pressing a huge panic button here," Smith said after the game on Saturday. "But there is an extreme urgency to get this thing in a better place."

If Smith does get MSU football into a better place, it probably won't be this season. Again, Michigan State is currently the underdog in all six of its remaining contests. The possibility of getting worse from 5-7 last year and finishing 4-8, or even 3-9, is there. Even before the blowout loss to UCLA, ESPN's Football Power Index was giving MSU less than a 50% chance of reaching six wins and a bowl berth.

So, where do the Spartans go from here? The answer is a bit complicated.

Jonathan Smith

Imagine being Michigan State athletic director J Batt right now. I can't know what his true opinions are on the state of the football program or if he thinks Smith is the coach of the future, but for the sake of this exercise, let's imagine that he thinks MSU would be better off without Smith.

If he so chooses, he'd better pay up. According to USA Today, the cost to fire Jonathan Smith right now is just north of $33 million. Executing that would mean paying out one of the largest coaching buyouts in history. That number will go down as Smith's seven-year contract progresses.

A big reason Michigan State chose Batt to be the school's new athletic director earlier this year is how well he does on the financial side of things. From that perspective, it's probably not best to light $33 million on fire and then pull out even more tens of millions to find Smith's replacement.

Coaches will be wary of a school that just fired a coach after only two seasons, too. Starting another coaching staff would signal a lack of stability, which could potentially turn off targets for Michigan State in a hypothetical coaching search. By the looks of it, Smith is probably going to be granted at least one more season to try and show progress.

Recruiting

Michigan State's high school recruiting hasn't been good enough during the Smith era, either. The 2025 class, with Smith's first full year recruiting, finished ranked 47th nationally and 14th in the Big Ten, according to the Rivals Industry Rankings. Defensive lineman Derrick Simmons was the class' only four-star recruit.

Looking ahead to the 2026 class, a few months ahead of the Early Signing Period, there's progress, but not much of it. MSU ranks 39th in the nation and 12th in the conference. That's not good enough to compete with the upper portion of the new, expanded Big Ten.

If that's going to be the case, that means Smith and Michigan State need to establish themselves as a program that's great at identifying talent in the transfer portal. A good effort was made there this past offseason --- On3 ranked MSU's portal class 21st in the country --- but it hasn't seemed to have paid off yet.

Even so, MSU isn't utilizing its roster enough. According to 247Sports' Talent Composite, the Spartans are a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team: 10th. At 0-3 in conference play this season, it's safe to say the Spartans aren't living up to that.