Navy vs Cincinnati AutoZone Liberty Bowl Prediction

Cincinnati started out the season with a real shot to win the Big 12 title.

It was 7-1, the lone loss was in the final moments against Nebraska, and then ...

The hard part of the schedule kicked in. The Bearcats lost four straight, and now they're here seeing what they have for 2026 because just about everyone is leaving or gone.

Meanwhile, Navy beat Army, won ten games, and came painfully close to playing for the American Conference Championship with a spot in the CFP. It's two losses were to a high-powered North Texas team, and to Notre Dame.

However, there wasn't a ton of meat on that schedule bone. Even so, it would be the third 11-win season in program history if it could pull this off.

How To Watch Navy vs Cincinnati

Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
Game Time: 4:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN

- Bowl Schedule, Predictions, Lines
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Why Navy Will Win

If you're not familiar with the 2025 Cincinnati Bearcats, you're in luck. You won't miss anyone who played a big role this season.

From a few good NFL prospects in defensive tackle Dontay Corleone and linebacker Jake Golday opting out, to star quarterback Brendan Sorsby one of the top players in the transfer portal, to pretty much the entire secondary likely to be gone - like, everyone - it'll be a struggle to piece things together.

Meanwhile, it's Navy. The transfer portal isn't a thing.

Even at full strength, Cincinnati wasn't great at slowing down the run. It didn't get behind the line, and it failed to generate enough tackles for loss to matter. 

Navy has the No. 1 rushing offense in America, and quarterback Blake Horvath is great at hitting the deep shots. Again, Cincinnati is a tad lacking in the secondary, however ...

Why Cincinnati Will Win

Yes, people wearing Cincinnati Bearcat uniforms will be running out of the tunnel. 

There are a ton of transfers and players missing, but the defensive front might not be all that awful, and the Sorsby-less offense will be able to move a bit.

There's a flip side to all this transfer stuff. The guys who are in place want to be there; they have Big 12 talent, and they're mostly auditioning for spots next year or possibly somewhere in the portal.

There will be a passing game. The offense spreads the ball around, and plenty of targets are there to make this go.

The quarterback is a bit of a question mark without Sorsby around - the rest of the passers combined for just eight attempts this year - but there should be a bit of a rotation.

Again, it's not like Navy ripped through any sort of gauntlet. It played one power program - Notre Dame - and got walloped. Cincinnati has the potential to go smashmouth and get grinding.

The Bearcats are 4-0 when running for 215 yards or more, and ...

Navy vs Cincinnati Prediction, Betting Lines

Navy will be as close to the regular season version as possible, and Cincinnati is piecing it all together.

Cincinnati is still better and more talented, but that's the problem when dealing with service academies that run precision attacks with tough blocking schemes - they've done this before.

It won't be like Army's 41-16 drubbing of UConn in the Fenway Bowl, but it'll be rough.

Even when fully functional, Cincinnati and its style meant the time of possession battle was a disaster. The Bearcats held the ball for fewer than 24 minutes per game, and in this, Navy's offense should be on the field way too often.

Navy 31, Cincinnati 23
Line: Navy -7.5, o/u: 53.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3.5
Must See Rating: 3

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.