College football is back, and we return for another season of our weekly NCAA football parlay picks. Last year, we made a push come playoff time and hit on two parlays late in the season. That stretch helped us finish the season with a 26-26 ATS record. Loyal followers know we target games, seeing respected money, more precisely, reverse line movements, and those where the Vegas oddsmakers have heavy liability. In other words, the outcomes the sportsbooks need to profit from on the day. We have three selections on tap for you this opening week. Betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
The opening leg of our NCAA Football Parlay will be the Iowa State Cyclones +3.5 over the Kansas State Wildcats. Regardless of what sportsbook you use, the sharps are on the Cyclones. We spotted a line hold in this one, with Kansas State seeing over 50% of both the tickets and the money bets. Despite that, Iowa State has held steady at 3 or 3.5. That indicates some respected money is on the Cyclones. Iowa State is 7-3 SU in their last 10 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road.
We do have some hesitation as Kansas State has double-revenge, having lost the last two seasons to Iowa State. However, we will follow the money in this one, Iowa State Cyclones +3.5 for play number one!
The middle leg of our NCAA Football Parlay features the UNLV Rebels alternate team total over 45.5 points. The Rebels are a big 26.5-point favorite and expected to have no problem putting up points versus Idaho State. The Rebels’ implied game total sits at 47.5, and it is a good sign as the implied game total has risen a point to 65.5. Last season, the Rebels’ offense had five games scoring at least 40 points, and three of at least 50.
They return their leading rusher, Jai’Den Thomas , and Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea is expected to be under center. Instead of worrying about covering the number, we will just play on the UNLV offense. UNLV Rebels team total over 45.5 points for play number two!
Closing out the parlay will be the Fresno State Bulldogs +14.5 over the Kansas Jayhawks. In this one, we spotted our staple reverse line movement. Kansas is seeing 67% of the tickets and 65% of the money bets, and the line has moved a full point in the Bulldogs’ direction. Fresno State is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog, and on the other side, Kansas is just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. We will buy the full point back and get the right number. Fresno State Bulldogs +14.5 for play number three!.
Our NCAA football parlay provides our followers with three individual wagers. We will play these picks SU and then sprinkle some on both an ATS and Moneyline parlay. Remember, the hit rate on a three-team parlay is about 6-1, and parlays in general are just not a long-term profitable betting strategy. Hitting on the parlay is simply icing on the cake. We try to avoid public plays, which tend to be the betting favorites. Please follow us on X and Facebook as the College Football season moves toward the National Championship. Let’s get a successful season going and get you three winners. And remember to: Follow or Fade!
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
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