Nebraska vs Northwestern by the Numbers

Dylan Raiola started 2025 strong, with his total EPA* sharply rising during the non-conference schedule. However, since conference play began, it has leveled off, and after a game in which the Husker offense failed to score a single touchdown, his EPA numbers have started to decline. Dylan Raiola will face a tough challenge against the Wildcats, who rank 24th nationally in EPA against the pass.

*EPA (Expected Points Added) assigns a “point” value for each play to distribute scoring action to each play and not just the touchdown, field goal, etc.

Preston Stone is a seasoned quarterback who played four seasons at SMU. His best year was 2023, when he ranked among the top quarterbacks in the American Conference. His progress this season is the reverse of Raiola’s: he started slow but has been improving, with his EPA rising again in the last few games. He still hasn't thrown for over 200 yards per game against a Big Ten team. The Wildcats are 5-0 when he throws more touchdowns than interceptions. If the Blackshirts can force him into some mistakes, Nebraska should win this game. 

I expected a big game from Emmett Johnson in his return to his hometown last week, but instead, he posted his lowest rushing total of the season. He’s currently ranked 9th in total rushing yards in the country. He’s excellent at gaining positive yards on runs, and as his carry distribution indicates, he’s also been able to gain 8-12 yards on several carries. Nebraska should look to use him more in draw plays in this game to slow down the Northwestern pass rush and help get Raiola more time to throw.

The impact of all the sacks Dylan Raiola has taken is clear in his carry distribution. The large peak behind the line of scrimmage indicates how many losses he’s endured. While he’s generally good at protecting the ball, these sacks still add up. Although EPA is heavily context-dependent, every 2 to 3 sacks equates to the same EPA loss as a turnover. Dylan and Donovan are not doing each other any favors this season.

Northwestern is the second-most run-heavy team in the Big Ten (behind Indiana), but the Wildcats' results have only been good, not great. Game on Paper ranks Northwestern 52nd in the nation for EPA per rush and 46th in rushing success rate. Against Nebraska, any team can look great running the ball. Like the Golden Gophers last week, the Wildcats haven’t been effective at breaking off big runs. The Husker defense could be just what they need to finally break off a few big plays.

If Northwestern can protect the ball, it can prevent Nebraska from securing that elusive sixth win. Preston Stone has the highest interception rate in the Big Ten in 2025, at 3.7% of his passes being intercepted. The Huskers need to try to get out to an early lead to force Northwestern to throw more than it wants. If Stone is forced to throw at least 25 times, Nebraska should get one, if not two, interceptions in this game. The Huskers should be able to win a close game and earn their sixth victory of the season.