New Mexico vs. Minnesota Prediction: Rate Bowl Preview

Why New Mexico Will Win The Rate Bowl

Motivation is a key part of assessing any bowl matchup, and New Mexico should have an edge in this department over Minnesota on Friday afternoon. Not only did the Lobos exceed all preseason expectations, but this team has a chance to beat a Big Ten team for the second time this year (UCLA on Sept. 12) and earn win No. 10 - the first double-digit win season for the program since 1982.

Outside of motivation, New Mexico has a few areas where this team can frustrate Minnesota on Dec. 26. The Lobos average 155.1 rushing yards a contest behind four players with at least 300 rushing yards, including running back Damon Bankston (578) and D.J. McKinney (454). Starting quarterback Jack Layne (150 rushing yards) will contribute some as a rusher, but backup James Laubstein (306) is the greater threat on the ground as a change-of-pace option. Minnesota’s rush defense is solid (121.5 yards a game allowed) but allowed nine scores on the ground over the last five games.

In addition to the ground game and Layne’s efficient passing, New Mexico’s defense can keep a shorthanded Minnesota offense in check. The Lobos led the Mountain West in sacks (33), limited opponents to 5.3 yards a snap, and ranked second in the conference against the run. If the defense continues to create negative plays, keeps Minnesota’s ground game in check, and gets the offense into third-and-long situations against a passing game missing key receivers, that’s a winning formula for Eck’s defense.

Why Minnesota Will Win The Rate Bowl

Fleck’s track record of success in bowl games is notable, especially in this era of extra roster chaos due to the portal and opt outs for the NFL Draft. Minnesota could have a couple of notable opt outs on Friday, but Fleck and his staff will figure out the right buttons to push to keep this team on track.

Every member of the Golden Gophers’ starting offensive line checks in over 300 pounds, which could take a toll on New Mexico’s defensive front over the course of a four-quarter battle. Running back Darius Taylor (554 yards) has not indicated whether or not he will play on Friday, but his presence is critical with backup Fame Ijeboi opting to transfer. The Lobos are stout against the run (second in the Mountain West), but the size and depth in the trenches could favor Minnesota.

Quarterback Drake Lindsey had a solid debut season in Minneapolis, throwing for 2,235 yards and 16 touchdowns. Although the redshirt freshman’s weapons at receiver will be limited due to potential opt outs or transfers, Lindsey should still have enough playmakers to keep the offense moving through the air. 

The status of standout defensive linemen Anthony Smith and Deven Eastern are uncertain due to a potential opt out for the NFL. Those two players are instrumental in a run defense limiting opponents to 3.8 yards per carry and generating 84 tackles for a loss as a team in ‘25. If that duo plays on Friday, Minnesota’s front will have a better chance to contain New Mexico’s ground game and get the offense into third-and-long situations.

Rate Bowl Prediction: Minnesota 23, New Mexico 20

Don't expect a ton of points on Friday. However, while the offensive production might be limited, this one won't lack for intensity or intrigue. Both teams should be motivated, with turnover margin potentially the deciding factor.