North Carolina vs. California Prediction, Game Preview

North Carolina vs. California Keys to Victory

1. Consistent UNC QB Play
The Tar Heels are expected to have Gio Lopez back under center this week after Max Johnson started in his place against the Tigers on Oct. 4. Though UNC only scored 10 points in that game, Johnson’s 208 passing yards were a new season-high for the team. Lopez will be up against a Cal defense that gives up just over 200 passing yards per game. However, with a week to prepare, he might be able to build on what’s been a slow start to the year. Lopez relied much more on his mobility a season ago at South Alabama. Coming off a leg injury, he might not be quick to take off, but he can keep the defense honest if he flashes some of that mobility and maybe even ignite what’s been a dormant run game.

2. Can Cal Cut the Turnovers?
Golden Bears quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has thrown six interceptions in his last three games after throwing one in his first three. Turnovers have been a big issue for Cal, which has three more giveaways (10) than takeaways (seven) on the year. Two of those turnovers were returned for scores in a blowout loss to San Diego State. And while UNC’s defense has not been especially opportunistic, the Tar Heels don’t turn the ball over all that often. Giving a struggling offense extra possessions and short fields is the last thing Cal needs to do after Duke took full advantage of four takeaways two weeks ago.

3. Red Zone Execution
One thing UNC has excelled at is red zone defense. Opponents have only scored on 13 of 20 trips inside the 20-yard line, and the majority of those have been field goals. Holding Cal, which has been shut out and scored as many as 35 points this season, to field goal tries in plus territory would be a big step in the Tar Heels’ efforts to pick up their first ACC win. Neither the Golden Bears nor the Tar Heels are especially effective near the end zone, so UNC’s bend-don’t-break defense — at least in the red zone — could lead to a closer-than-expected game.

Score Prediction: California 28, UNC 16

The Golden Bears have been somewhat erratic, but they’ve flashed on offense in a way the Tar Heels have yet to display against a power conference team. As long as Sagapolutele limits the turnovers, Cal should be in control for most of this game. There’s something to be said for a Belichick-led team coming out of a bye, but UNC has done little to inspire confidence at this point on either side of the ball.

ATS: California -8.5
O/U: Under 46.5