North Carolina vs. Syracuse Prediction, Game Preview

North Carolina vs. Syracuse Keys to Victory

1. Turnovers Could Turn the Tide
The Tar Heels and Orange are two of the most mistake-ridden offenses in the FBS. UNC has coughed up 12 turnovers, including fumbles on its final possessions of those losses to the Golden Bears and Cavaliers. Syracuse has 16 turnovers on the season. Quarterback play is at the root of those issues as Gio Lopez (four touchdowns, five interceptions) and Rickie Collins (six touchdowns, six interceptions) have more giveaways than scores. (Orange coach Fran Brown indicated this week that a quarterback change could be coming: Luke Carney is next up on the depth chart.) Neither defense is especially opportunistic, but whichever team wins the turnover battle should have a leg up in a game between two offenses that have not scored 20 points in a game since September.

2. How Well Will ’Cuse Run the Ball?
Part of the Tar Heels’ defensive improvement has been a renewed effort to take away the ground game. None of their last three opponents broke the 100-yard mark as a team. UNC will try to keep that streak going against the Orange’s two-headed backfield of Yasin Willis and Will Nixon, though Collins is also a threat to take off. Syracuse’s offensive approach has shifted since Angeli’s injury. And despite the lopsided result last time out against the Yellow Jackets, the Orange ran more often than they passed for the first time since the opener. Willis finished with almost 100 scrimmage yards last week, but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2. The better Syracuse can move the ball on the ground, the less pressure there will be on Collins to air it out.

3. Can Gio Lopez Punish a Struggling Secondary?
The Tar Heels’ offense is moving in a different direction than the Orange as they’re asking more of Lopez in recent weeks. He set a new season high in pass attempts the last two games, throwing 35 against Cal and 36 against Virginia. Accordingly, his yardage totals went up and he surpassed 200 passing yards for the first time in eight games last time out. He’s been getting Jordan Shipp more involved in the offense, and Kobe Paysour is also beginning to emerge. Syracuse has one of the worst pass defenses in the ACC, allowing more than 270 yards per game. Perhaps this is the matchup Lopez needs to build on one of his better games of the year.

Score Prediction: North Carolina 21, Syracuse 20

These teams are bringing up the rear in the ACC for a reason, but the Tar Heels are trending (slightly) upward while the Orange are reeling against an admittedly difficult schedule. UNC is a welcome reprieve after playing the likes of Georgia Tech, Pitt and SMU. Still, the Tar Heels’ recent defensive improvements give them a fighting chance to pick up their first conference win after putting up a fight the past two weeks. Just don’t expect a Halloween shootout, considering these teams have combined for fewer than 100 points in October.

ATS: North Carolina +2.5
O/U: Under 45.5