North Carolina vs. West Virginia: Duke's Mayo Bowl prediction, pick

As we move into the second half of the annual College Football Bowl Season, we're seeing more Power Five schools get on the field and that includes the three games set for Wednesday kickoff. This year's Duke's Mayo Bowl game gets underway from Charlotte as West Virginia takes on North Carolina in their third all-time meeting.

• West Virginia: The Mountaineers went 8-4, the team's best result since 2018, moving head coach Neal Brown off the hot seat after his 5-7 finish a year ago.
• North Carolina: Despite starting 6-0 and putting quarterback Drake Maye in the Heisman race, the Tar Heels finished 2-4 over their last six games.

North Carolina vs. West Virginia prediction, preview

When: Wed., Dec. 27
Time: 5:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Duke's Mayo Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: West Virginia -6.5
Total: 54.5 points
Moneyline: UNC +210 | WVU -250
FPI pick: UNC 60.8% to win

What to watch for

1. The new guy. Drake Maye opted out of the bowl game, meaning UNC will turn to Conner Harrell to start at quarterback instead. And with Maye's departure combined with transfer Max Johnson coming in ostensibly to inherit the role in 2024, this is a good chance for Harrell to audition either for the job himself or for another school that may be interested in the future. He's attempted 6 passes and has a touchdown. 

2. Greene moves the Mountaineers. The injury-induced absence of lead back CJ Donaldson hurts a West Virginia's ground game that has dominated time of possession, but quarterback Garrett Greene can pick up some of the slack. He's third on the team with 708 rushing yards and is 1st with 13 touchdowns running, the most among FBS quarterbacks this season. That's in addition to his 15 passing scores against 4 INTs and 6 of his receivers have eclipsed 200 yards on the year.

3. Run the ball. The absence of a credible downfield threat — not only is Maye out, but so is top receiver Tez Walker — means the Tar Heels will lean more heavily on running the ball behind lead tailback Omarion Hampton. He finished the season with 1,442 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns and goes against a Mountaineer run-stop that posted the Big 12's worst marks, allowing 234 yards on the ground per game on average. West Virginia was 3-4 when allowing more than 135 yards, and 5-0 when giving up fewer.

North Carolina vs. West Virginia prediction

Personnel losses will impact both teams' production in this game, but none more than North Carolina's stars. 

Not having its starting quarterback, best receiver, most important tight end, and center — seven expected starters in all — will likely cost the Heels.

But they have the capacity to stay in this with an efficient rushing attack behind a good-enough line against a Mountaineer run defense that has struggled. That should keep it close enough to cover, but West Virginia has more firepower to pull this out.

College Football HQ picks...

• West Virginia wins 30-23
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the under