North Dakota State vs. Montana State: FCS Championship Preview & Prediction

North Dakota State vs Montana State: How to Watch the FCS National Championship, Game Preview

Date: Monday, January 6, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Teams: Montana State (15-0), North Dakota State (13-2)
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Why North Dakota State Will Win

Cam Miller is worth the price of admission.

North Dakota State is loaded with talent across the board, but it’s Miller who makes it all go completing 73% of his passes for 31 touchdowns with just four picks, and he ran for ten touchdowns.

Because of him, the Bison own third downs, have the nation’s most efficient FCS passing game, and are terrific at winning the time of possession battle. This might not be quite the force it was over its reign of dominance, but it’s a bit more measured.

There’s no sense of panic with this bunch. Convert third downs, don’t take chances, don’t turn the ball over, rely on a running game that averages almost five yards and score whenever there’s a chance.

Methodical works. Methodical keep the defense fresh, however …

Why Montana State Will Win

Montana State is methodical, and it’s more explosive.

North Dakota State might lead the nation in passing efficiency, but behind Tommy Mellott - 29 touchdown passes, two picks, 14 touchdown runs and over 900 yards on the ground - Montana State is No. 2.

NDSU is third in the nation in third down conversions. Montana State is No. 2 - Eastern Washington was No. 1, by the way, and it lost to the Bobcats by two touchdowns.

NDSU is fifth in the nation in time of possession. Montana State is No. 3. NDSU is third in the nation in scoring offense. Montana State is No. 1, partly because the team is first in the nation in scoring, red zone offense, and tackles for loss allowed.

The Bison defensive front might be great at getting into the backfield and a killer against the run, but the Bobcat line is too good.

The O averages 6.6 yards per carry, and like NDSU, it doesn’t take a lot of chances only turning it over nine times on the year.

North Dakota State vs Montana State: Who Will Win?

It’s Montana State’s time.

Never, ever, ever count out North Dakota State or assume it can’t find a way to get the job done - you don’t nine national titles in 11 years without having something figured out.

But this Bobcat team is too good in all phases, too strong on the lines, and has just enough experience to not be totally intimidated by the NDSU history.

The Bison will do their best to control the tempo, and they’ll managed to go on a few strong scoring marches in the first half to keep up, but the Montana State O line will let everyone work. The D line will generate a bit more of a pass rush than NDSU’s will.

North Dakota State vs Montana State FCS National Championship Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: Montana State 30, North Dakota State 24
Line: Montana State -3.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 5