Notre Dame vs Indiana Game Predictions

Notre Dame (11-1) and Indiana (11-1) kick off the 2024 College Football Playoff on Friday Night when the two teams square off inside Notre Dame Stadium. It's a huge in-state matchup between the blue blood Fighting Irish and the upstart Hoosiers, who are in the midst of the best season in school history. The winner gets a shot at Georgia in the quarterfinals.

Location: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Ind.)
Date: Friday - December 20
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Network: ABC/ESPN
Line: Notre Dame -7.0, O/U: 52.5

IB has spent the last two weeks breaking things down and now it's time to make predictions.

BRYAN DRISKELL, OWNER

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Indiana 17

This is a super intriguing matchup between two of the most balanced teams in the country. Notre Dame is the only team in the country to rank in the Top 5 in scoring offense and scoring defense, while the Hoosiers are one of just four teams (including ND) to rank in the Top 10 in both categories. Neither team has had to run through a gauntlet of a schedule this season, but both were dominant. Notre Dame and Indiana both won 10 of their 11 games by at least two touchdowns.

The most intriguing matchup is the Notre Dame run game against the Indiana rush defense. Notre Dame ranks 10th nationally in rushing yards per game (224.8 YPG) and 3rd nationally in yards per carry (6.3), while the Hoosiers lead the country in rush defense (70.8 YPC) and are 2nd in yards allowed per carry (2.5). The highest ranked rushing attack Indiana has faced all season is Ohio State, who ranks 59th in rushing. If Indiana can slow down the Irish ground attack this game could get interesting, but if Notre Dame can punish Indiana on the ground like it has its last five opponents they score a bunch.

Indiana is going to commit a lot of resources to shutting down the run game, which is why quarterback Riley Leonard is poised for a big game as a runner and passer. Leonard is not like any quarterback the Hoosiers have faced this season and if he's on top of his game the offense will roll. On the other side of the ball, the Notre Dame pass rush will need to get after quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who is smart, accurate and gritty. If he gets comfortable the Hoosiers will move the ball on Notre Dame, but if the Irish pass rush has a big day this game could get out of hand.

I think the Irish offense does enough on the ground to move the ball relatively well, and Leonard will make some big plays with his arm and legs. Notre Dame's front seven will also eventually start to get to Rourke and force some crucial mistakes. It will be a bit of a grind, but Notre Dame carries the day.

VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Indiana 10

This is historic no matter how you look at it. The first home playoff game ever in D1 history and it is going to be held in historic Notre Dame Stadium at night. I have chills just thinking about it. Outside of the historic nature of the game there is still a game to be played. I have really tried to look at this from all angles and at the end of the day this is a special Notre Dame team in a special Notre Dame season. They have overcome an insane amount of injuries this year and are still playing at a high level. Past Notre Dame teams would not have been able to sustain these losses. The Irish have done it in stride. We were told in early August this offense would not be a complete package until late in the season. We did not want to listen but we have certainly seen the fruits of that patience. Tack on a contract extension for Marcus Freeman and this team is hitting on all cylinders at the right time.

This game could go a few different ways. First, it could be a tight game that could go either way. I am hoping that is not the case because of my trepidation with the field goal unit but it is certainly possible. IU did not back their way into this game. I think the more likely scenario is Notre Dame will win this game by two scores or more. There is a reason I say this. IU has had a phenomenal season so far but they have picked on the bottom feeders in the Big Ten. They played two defenses with a pulse and they struggled. Michigan is a super flawed football team and they should have beaten IU. Ohio State benefitted from some Hoosier mistakes, no doubt about it, but they were never really in a position to threaten offensively. 

I think Notre Dame's defense is better than both Michigan and Ohio State and I think they will prove it Friday night. IU will have some success through the air between the 20s but when it matters they will not be able to score touchdowns. As far as Notre Dame's offense is concerned, I know IU has not played a trio the likes of Jeremiyah Love, Riley Leonard and Jadarian Price. IU fans can talk about "all we have to do is stop the run and we will be fine" all they want but the reality is no one has been able to do that this year. They have not seen a dynamic player like Love all year and he is going to introduce himself to the world on Friday. Riley Leonard will do Riley Leonard things. His stat line will be something along the lines of 60 yards rushing, 200 yards passing and 3 touchdowns responsible. You can chalk Love up for getting in the end zone as well. All those factors led me to my score prediction.

SEAN STIRES, STAFF WRITER

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Indiana 17

It’s strength on strength on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame’s running game vs Indiana’s run defense on one side and Notre Dame’s pass efficiency defense vs IU’s pass efficiency offense (both ranked No. 1 nationally) on the other side. Points are likely to be at a premium all night for two well coached teams.

The difference in skill position speed and talent has been obvious in recent big game appearances by Notre Dame in 2012, 2018 and 2020. That won’t be the case in this matchup. The Irish have more playmakers on both sides of the ball to win those matchups that lagged in those three previous postseason losses.

TREVOR TROWBRIDGE, STAFF WRITER

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Indiana 16

Notre Dame will get Indiana's best early, and the start may look similar to the Ohio State game. Indiana comes into this game with nothing to lose, and that's a dangerous team in the playoffs. It will be back and forth early, with each team landing punch after counterpunch. Notre Dame will go into the half with a 14-10 lead of the Hoosiers. The second half is where Notre Dame starts to pull away.

Notre Dame's defense will hold Indiana to strictly field goals in the second half and the Irish run game will start to take over this football game. Difference will be the lack of elite athleticism for the Hoosiers. Time and time again, we have seen Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price break into the second and third level of the defense and opponents are not able to catch them. I see much of the same this Friday night. The kicking game will be back on point with a healthy Mitch Jeter, and the Irish win the day 34-16 and advance to the Sugar Bowl to take on the Georgia Bulldogs. 

NICK KREMER, RECRUITING ANALYST

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Indiana 17

What a setting this will be on Friday night—the first-ever college football playoff game played on a college campus. And where better to host it than at college football’s cathedral, Notre Dame Stadium? There’s been plenty of talk about uniforms and how much red will show up in the stands, but none of that is going to matter once the game kicks off. Notre Dame is the better team, and I expect them to prove it on their way to a big playoff win.

On offense, look for a steady dose of Riley Leonard making plays with his legs, along with big plays from Love and Price. The Irish will likely lean on the quick passing game to keep the Indiana defense off balance, and the tight ends could have a big night as a result. The offensive line will need to bring their A-game against a Hoosier defense that loves to attack the line of scrimmage and shut down the run.

Defensively, the key for the Irish will be keeping Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke under constant pressure. When the Hoosiers faced Ohio State, Rourke struggled when the Buckeyes brought the heat, so I expect Al Golden to dial up plenty of stunts and creative pressures to make him uncomfortable. If the Irish can disrupt Rourke, they’ll win the turnover battle—and the game.

ANDREW McDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Indiana 20

In what should be an electric atmosphere inside Notre Dame Stadium, the Fighting Irish never trail en route to a victory over a tough Indiana team. Hoosier head coach Curt Cignetti has changed the culture of this program in just a single season and the experience Indiana gained in the road loss to Ohio State means that the Hoosiers won't be intimidated by the moment. Indiana sports the nation's second-ranked rushing defense and is surrendering just 14.7 PPG - and regardless of the strength of schedule, those numbers are impressive. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke has emerged as one of the nation's better deep-ball throwers and leads the nation in passer rating. The Hoosiers are talented and deep at wide receiver, and though they don't have a true game breaker at running back, the tandem of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton has combined for 22 touchdowns.

However, Notre Dame presents a bad matchup for Indiana, and that is ultimately why the Fighting Irish will control the game - even though it figures to be close throughout. First, Notre Dame under Marcus Freeman is built for moments like this. Freeman's teams have always met the moment in home night games as in contrast to his predecessor, his teams have been able to play with emotion - and under control - in these types of matchups. 

Second, Notre Dame has arguably the best coordinator tandem in the country and with 3 weeks to prepare, you can bet that Mike Denbrock and Al Golden will have game plans to put their units in position for success. Third, Notre Dame has the most dynamic backfield that the Hoosiers have faced - and that includes Ohio State. Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Riley Leonard present unique and varied skillsets and Notre Dame's ability to be diverse in the run game behind an offensive line playing its best football of the season will allow the Irish to have success on the ground. Finally, the Notre Dame defense will be the best unit the Hoosiers have faced this season, and in games against Michigan and Ohio State the Hoosiers averaged just 199.5 YPG.

Again, Indiana is a quality football team and the Hoosiers have earned the right to be here. If Notre Dame plays sloppy football, turns the ball over, or commits penalties and struggles on special teams, Indiana is good enough to win. But, if the Fighting Irish meet the moment, they match up really well with Indiana and will control a close game throughout. 

STAFF RESULTS

Bryan - 43-16
Andrew - 42-17
Sean - 41-18
Nick - 41-18
Vince - 40-19
Trevor - 40-19