Miami is the biggest disappointment in college football

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Overhyped Miami the biggest disappointment in college football this season

By Ethan Petrik | Last updated 11/2/22

The hype arrived prematurely for the Miami Hurricanes

The arrival of Mario Cristobal as the new head coach, combined with high projections for quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, led many to believe Miami could return to national prominence. In the preseason, the Hurricanes were ranked 16th.

Eight games into the season, however, the Canes (4-4, 2-2 in ACC) have not lived up to their billing.

A double-digit loss to Middle Tennessee showed the cracks in the Miami’s façade and a 24-point loss to perennial ACC doormat Duke on Oct. 22 disposed of any remaining hope.

On top of its shocking losses, Miami is one of the ACC’s least efficient teams, per ESPN. The Canes are ahead of only bottom-dwellers Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Boston College.

Advanced stats from @statsowar on Twitter comparing consensus spread point differential and actual point differential put numbers to the disappointing start of Cristobal’s tenure.

If lines are a reasonable expectation of a team's performance over the course of a season, then here's how teams have played relative to expectation in 2022.
⬆️ Outperforming market expectations
⬇️ Underperforming market expectations
➡️Higher Expectations
⬅️Lower Expectations pic.twitter.com/1Z6eYo3u5h
— parker (@statsowar) November 2, 2022

The graph shows Miami — 1-7 against the spread this season (h/t ESPN) — underperformed the expectations of oddsmakers more than any other team in college football.

Miami’s underperformance even topped disappointments Oklahoma, Nebraska, BYU and Auburn.

Biggest Under Performers

1. Miami -90.0
2. BYU -81.0
3. Western Michigan -80.0
4. Oklahoma -63.5
5. Nebraska -62.5
6. Auburn -55.5
7. Central Michigan -55.0
8. Colorado State -55.0
9. Boston College -54.0
10. Virginia -52.5
— parker (@statsowar) November 2, 2022

Miami dug itself a hole by losing three games in which it was favored —particularly as double-digit favorites against Duke and Middle Tennessee — and failing to outperform expectations in any win outside of its season-opening drubbing of FCS Bethune-Cookman.

Using the consensus spread as an analog for expectations, Miami cannot escape its reality as college football’s biggest disappointment.

Did Miami deserve the expectations placed on them in the first place?

Without a 10-win season, bowl win or conference championship appearance in the previous three seasons under Manny Diaz, Miami did not have the resume to warrant the grand expectations of the preseason or a spot in the top 25.

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