Yardbarker
x
Overrated, underrated teams in ESPN top 25 college football rankings
Overrated, underrated teams in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings The Independent Mail-USA TODAY NETWORK

One of the landmark moments of the preseason has arrived, as ESPN has compiled its 136-team college football rankings in anticipation of the 2025 kickoff.

FPI always courts a little controversy among fans, and complaining about its analytical process and team rankings is always good sport whenever the latest poll is released, and that’s certainly the case when looking at the preseason 2025 rankings, too.

How does the index work? It’s a little different from the traditional power rankings or the AP poll in that it ranks teams based on averaging how many points each team would beat an average opponent by on a neutral field.

It takes past performance on offense and defense, returning production, transfer portal additions and losses, and recruiting intel on existing and incoming players, then uses all that data and simulates each team’s season 20,000 times.

What did the ESPN rankings get right and wrong?

College football rankings: Overrated, underrated teams in ESPN top 25

Overrated: No. 10 Tennessee

Tennessee Athletics

There’s one big question at the quarterback position after Nico Iamaleava’s shocking departure, and while replacement Joey Aguilar is a proven producer throwing the ball, he’s also prone to turnovers.

That, combined with other outgoing features on Tennessee’s superb defense from a year ago and the loss of lead back Dylan Sampson, the engine of this offense last season, should give enough pause to keep the Vols from the top 10 of these rankings.

--

Underrated: No. 11 Clemson

Alexander Hicks-Imagn Images

Once upon a time, it was an open question if Cade Klubnik was the man for the job, but the quarterback put up career numbers last season, propelling the Tigers to an ACC title and a return to the College Football Playoff.

Add to that improvement the return of what might be college football’s defensive line that has Peter Woods at tackle and T.J. Parker off the edge, and you have a team that at best should be among the 10 best teams in the country.

--

Overrated: No. 9 Miami

Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

There’s plenty of preseason hype for the Hurricanes after another successful transfer portal haul on Mario Cristobal’s watch, including key secondary gains like cornerback Xavier Lucas and safety Zechariah Poyser to beef up a pass defense that was very average last fall.

But the big transfer gain was quarterback Carson Beck, the former two-year starter at Georgia, and while Miami brought in receivers like CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion, this rotation still lost its top six targets and Beck’s production slipped last season, and he’s coming off a UCL surgery.

--

Underrated: No. 24 Arizona State

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The loss of lead back Cam Skattebo understandably has some analysts pressing pause on the Sun Devils repeating at Big 12 champions, especially as that conference looks like the most competitive among Power Four leagues this season.

Sam Leavitt is back under center, though, after posting nearly 2,900 yards with 24 touchdowns and wideout Jordyn Tyson, a thousand-yard producer a year ago, returns to an offense on a team we think should be ranked closer to the top 15.

--

Overrated: No. 8 Texas A&M

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Preseason hype tends to follow the Aggies, but this offense was 49th in production and its defense was just 63rd despite fielding what looked like one of the nation’s top defensive front seven rotations.

A lot of that production is gone, but Marcel Reed returns at quarterback and his wide receiver room just gained a big addition with KC Concepcion. It’s a promising group, but it doesn’t warrant a ranking this high.

--

Underrated: No. 29 BYU

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

An oversight on the FPI’s part comes to a Cougars team that was a contender in the Big 12 and nine points away from going undefeated a year ago.

Some outgoing pieces on defense that was the conference’s best in total output and scoring is something to watch, but Jake Retzlaff returns to helm an offense that also brings back receiver Chase Roberts.

--

Read

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!