Pac-12 Football Game Picks: Will Washington Top Michigan For the National Title?

Imagine the uproar on ESPN all this past week had Alabama beaten Michigan and Texas knocked off Washington in the College Football Playoff semifinals.

The talk would have focused ad nauseam on the mighty Southeastern Conference being on the brink of become even more dominant, with the Longhorns joining ‘Bama, Georgia, LSU, Florida and their brethren next fall.

Neither of those results came true. Instead, we have Michigan vs. Washington, a pair of 14-0 teams that in the good ol’ days would have met in a titanic Rose Bowl showdown.

And really, folks, shouldn’t this one be played on real grass at Pasadena in the shadow of the San Gabriel Mountains?

Well, we’re stuck with Houston and artificial turf in a domed stadium sponsored by an energy company.

But, hey, we’ve got a great game featuring the Huskies’ potent offense vs. the Wolverines’ ferocious defense. And we’ve got two teams who will become familiar with one another going forward as Big Ten rivals.

Bowl picks: Jeff 7-1, Jake 5-3,

Season: Jeff 54-45, Jake 53-46

All picks against the spread

Betting line from sisportsbook.com

— COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

At NRG Stadium in Houston

Washington (plus-4.5) vs. Michigan, 4:30 p.m., ESPN

Jake: The biggest factor in the title game is not Michigan’s defense or the health of Washington running back Dillon Johnson, or anything having to do with the two rosters. The biggest factor is whether the retractable roof at Houston’s NRG Stadium will be open or closed. Forecasts call for a 96% chance of rain Monday afternoon and a 56% chance of precipitation Monday night. That almost guarantees the roof will be closed. With that in mind, we’re picking Washington.

Michael Penix Jr., like most efficient passers, performs better indoors when wind, rain and low temperatures are not a factor. The evidence came in last week’s Sugar Bowl in the Caesars Superdome. Penix was outstanding in that indoor game, and he dominated that contest until an odd series of events nearly enabled Texas to pull it out. Penix will be outstanding again indoors in Houston.

Meanwhile, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is likely to make one or two critical mistakes to doom the Wolverines. The game is likely to come down to the final minutes, and we all know how good Washington is in close games. It has won 10 straight games decided by 10 points or fewer, and the Huskies have won their last four games against Oregon State, Washington State, Oregon and Texas by a combined margin of 14 points.

Pick: Washington

Jeff: Cal fans won’t be happy (or surprised) to be reminded that the most recent opponent Washington beat by more than 10 points was the Bears. That was a 59-32 outcome back on Sept. 23 in Seattle.

Since that day, the Huskies have given 10 straight foes a chance to beat them, and no one could do it. That’s right, 10 victories in a row by 10 points or fewer. The opponents include USC, Utah, Oregon (twice) and, in last week’s CFP semifinal, Texas.

Michigan may be the best team the Huskies have yet faced, but I have confidence in their ability to continue prevailing in close ones. This also is the final chance the Pac-12 has to flex its muscles after a dynamite season in its swan song, and UW can create some early bragging rights for not just itself but also Oregon, USC and UCLA before they all join Michigan in the Big Ten next fall.

Pick: Washington