Penn State-Boise State: Beat Writer Picks Upset

Not a lot of people are giving Boise State a chance against Penn State, as evidenced by Penn State being a 10.5-point favorite.

But Ron Counts, who spent five years covering Boise State for the Idaho Statesman and now covers the Mountain West for HERO Sports, doesn’t only give Boise State a chance:  he picked the Broncos to win in an exclusive interview with Nittany Sports Now.

For Counts, Boise has a shot for three simple reasons.

THE THREE REASONS

“One, they run the ball very well. They have a very experienced o-line and the running backs behind Ashton Jeanty are very good. No. 2, Boise State plays really good defense. They’re one of the best sack teams in the country this year, I think they’re No. 2 behind Mississippi State. Their secondary is really improved, their linebackers are very, very good. And number three, Boise State doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, they don’t turn the ball over that much.

“Teams that run the ball, play good defense and don’t make mistakes can win games. Boise State can very much do that.”

“I’ve said this all season long, if a defense can hold Ashton Jeanty to less than 20 carries in a game, they have a really good chance of winning the game. But if Jeanty gets to 25 or 30 carries, Boise State’s winning percentage goes way, way up. So Boise State has to trust Ashton Jeanty. You also have to understand, we’ve mentioned his name a couple times in the interview. Dirk Koetter is the guy calling the plays for Boise State. This is a guy who has been a head coach in the NFL, an OC in the NFL, he’s worked with guys like Matt Ryan, he knows what he’s doing. So he’s not going to put this whole game plan on Ashton. While Ashton’s going to carry a lot of the workload, he’s going to have some other little cards up his sleeve. So I think Ashton Jeanty running the ball is going to be key, Boise State not turning the ball over is also going to be key and then Boise State’s defense kind of forcing some turnovers. That’s what’s always important when you’re the underdog. You have to pressure the quarterback, which Boise State does really well this year, you have to create some turnovers and you have to capitalize. So run the ball, don’t make mistakes. That simple.”

THE FINAL PREDICTION

In the 1998 classic film called “The WaterBoy,” Bobby Boucher’s girlfriend, Vicki Vallencourt, predicted Boucher’s team, the SCLSU Mud Dogs,  would upset Red Beaulieu and favored Louisiana, 30-27.

Counts picks Boise State by the same score.