Penn State vs. Nevada score prediction by expert football model

Penn State begins its quest for a Big Ten title in the 2025 college football season opener at home in Happy Valley against Nevada in Week 1. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Runners-up in the Big Ten Championship Game a year ago, Penn State comes into the 2025 season ranked No. 2 in the initial AP top 25 football rankings and on a mission to break through to another deep College Football Playoff run.

They certainly have the equipment to repeat last year’s success, bringing back some of college football’s most proven continuity on the offensive side of the ball.

Drew Allar returns at quarterback, aided by thousand-yard backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and four expected returning offensive line starters.

Penn State raided national champion Ohio State and poached defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to lead that unit, one of the sport’s most surprising coaching moves, bringing back key production up front along the line and what should be an expert secondary unit this fall.

Nevada sputtered to a forgettable 3-10 record last season in Jeff Choate’s debut as head coach, including a dismal 0-7 mark in Mountain West play that found the team finish in last place in the conference standings.

But underneath those 10 losses, six of them were by a single possession. Still, it wasn’t enough for the Wolf Pack to keep its offensive coordinator, and Matt Lubick was replaced by David Gilbertson.

Nevada also lost quarterback Brandon Lewis, who started 12 games last season, completing almost 68 percent of his pass attempts.

What do the analytics suggest when the Nittany Lions and Wolf Pack meet on the same field in Happy Valley?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Nevada compare in this Week 1 college football game.

Penn State vs. Nevada score prediction

It’s not exactly breaking news here, but Penn State is the big favorite in this one.

But by how much?

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Nevada by a projected score of 49 to 6 and to win the matchup by an expected margin of 43 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a perfect 100 percent chance to win the game, one of 10 games it gives the favorite a perfect shot at victory in.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

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How to bet Penn State vs. Nevada

The oddsmakers have named the Big Ten contender one of their biggest favorites across college football’s Week 1 action on Saturday.

Penn State is a 43.5 point favorite against Nevada, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup.

Anyone looking for easy money betting on Penn State on the moneyline is out of luck, as the book didn’t even bother listing those figures for this game.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Nevada +43.5
• Bet under 55.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors.

A slight majority of bets expect the Wolf Pack will keep things a little closer than expected against the Nittany Lions, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Nevada is getting 57 percent of bets to either, at least in theory, defeat Penn State in an upset, or, more likely, keep the margin under 44 points in an expected loss.

The other 43 percent of wagers project Penn State will win the game convincingly by at least 44 points and cover this massive point spread.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also expect the Nittany Lions will dominate their Mountain West counterparts in this Week 1 opener.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The model is giving Penn State the best chance of any college football team in any game this weekend.

Penn State is the massive favorite over Nevada, projected to win the game in the overwhelming majority 99 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nevada the presumptive winner in the remaining 1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Penn State is projected to be 38.9 points better than Nevada on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

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College Football HQ prediction

College Football HQ picks: Penn State wins, but doesn’t cover the spread.

College football teams favored by anywhere from 35 to 44.5 points in a single game are exactly 50 percent against the spread (115-115-7) in the last decade. 

Penn State has the firepower to blow the doors off, but we’re skeptical of such wide point spreads in season openers as teams build a lead and then pull starters. Penn State by 36

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How to watch Penn State vs. Nevada

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: University Park, Pa.

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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