Penn State vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins, and why?

Big Game James (not)

There’s a reason that’s not James Franklin’s nickname. Sure, the Penn State coach has kept this program a consistent winner over the last decade, but his team’s performance in games against highest-quality competition remains a serious problem.

Penn State is 4-20 against AP top 10 ranked opponents under Franklin, and that number dips to 2-20 when the other team on the field is among the top-six, including 14 straight losses in the latter situation.

Given the strong and experienced core the Nittany Lions return on offense, and what remains a dominant defensive rotation, this is a key moment for Franklin to prove he can turn that corner and turn out his best work against the best in the country.

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In the trenches

Penn State fields an experienced defensive rotation that has taken some good chances early, but even this potent front seven will be thoroughly tested by just how physical Oregon’s blockers have looked, even if they’re relatively inexperienced.

Offensively, the Nittany Lions have the pieces to push people around up front and keep quarterback Drew Allar clean while paving some decent rushing lanes for lead backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but these linemen have to deliver more than they have to so far to really make an impression against an opponent of this caliber.

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Oregon’s balance

Five-star quarterback Dante Moore has lived up to the mantle so far, playing with poise beyond his experience and proving a more than capable passer when seeking out his short and medium targets, but his downfield game is still a little unproven, and now he’s going against a solid coverage unit in Penn State’s secondary.

Two of Oregon’s backs average more than 11 yards per carry and as a unit, their combined output is good for 10th nationally, averaging nearly 256 yards per game while posting a very solid 6.72 yards per attempt.

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Going deep

Allar is still yet to play up to its potential. Penn State’s own former five-star quarterback prospect, the Cleveland area signal caller is 5-7 against ranked opponents and has looked inconsistent even against this season’s early competition.

Allar averages just 7.1 yards per pass attempt and is 70th among FBS quarterbacks with just under 209 yards per game throwing the ball. 

Now he’ll be tested against an Oregon secondary that, while it hasn’t seen anything like Allar’s caliber yet, is still efficient, allowing just 120 yards from opposing passers so far. Penn State has to be on guard against seeing its offense reduced to one dimension.

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Who is favored?

Penn State is a 3.5 point favorite against Oregon, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -166 and for Oregon at +138 to win outright.

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Oregon vs. Penn State prediction: Who wins?

Penn State has won its last six-straight White Out games and outscored opponents 205-74 in those matchups, four of which were against ranked teams, but the Ducks represent a major talent inflation in the caliber of athlete on the other side of the field in this engagement.

Oregon has proved itself as one of college football’s four or five most efficient and balanced teams this young season by just about every statistical category.

Penn State can run the ball to effect, but needs to prove right away that it can spread out its offense credibly enough to give their talented backs some room to breathe, while matching the Ducks’ pure speed at the skill positions on the outside.

So far, Allar’s play has not suggested he’ll be able to do that on a consistent-enough basis to counter the sheer variety of ways the Ducks can gain an edge at the other positions.

College Football HQ picks...

• Oregon wins 30-27
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More: Penn State vs. Oregon score prediction by expert football model

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