Pinstripe Bowl to Playoff: What's next for Notre Dame, Brian Kelly?

Rooney: The Kelly era at Notre Dame seems marked by a strange dichotomy of sorts. The Irish are either legitimate Playoff contenders or losers of a second-tier bowl game. Kelly is either a Coach of the Year candidate or squarely on the hot seat. I certainly see why his detractors claim they're still waiting for a signature win, but it's not as though Kelly necessarily falters against stiff competition. In the past three years, his 8-7 record against AP Top 25 teams is second only to Nick Saban's and Dabo Swinney's. And against Notre Dame’s biggest rival, USC, Kelly is 6-3.

The problem is the postseason and Kelly’s seeming lack of ability to guide his team to win in a significant bowl. The Irish have won the Sun Bowl, the Pinstripe Bowl, the Music City Bowl and the Citrus Bowl. But alongside the postseason embarrassments you listed above, I’ll submit the 2016 Fiesta Bowl when Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott gave us all a clue how fun it would be to watch him on Sundays. The Buckeyes beat the Irish, 44-28.

But back to Saturday’s matchup and Notre Dame’s chances. I’ll throw another Kelly record at you: He’s 2-4 against top-10 opponents on the road.  It will helpful this time around to have Book, who actually has been something close to great away from home, winning his past six. 

In the excellence of Book, though, also sort of lies the problem. The Irish are resting almost all of their hopes on his ability to carve up a defense. He averaged 262.8 passing yards last season and is fresh off a career-high 360 against New Mexico. Georgia’s pass defense isn’t necessarily outstanding — it's allowing 182.3 yards per game, tied for 34th in the FBS. But there’s no question that Georgia is the more complete team. Quarterback Jake Fromm is no slouch either, bolstered by the happy memories of his first career start, when he engineered a winning drive to beat Notre Dame, at South Bend, in the final minutes. His supporting cast is superior, from D’Andre Swift to a defense that shut out Arkansas State last week. 

But the only sure thing in this sport is that there’s no such thing as a sure thing. History is rife with upsets more unlikely than the nation’s No. 7 team knocking off No. 3. What, if any, vulnerabilities do you see on this Georgia squad that the Irish might exploit?

Weinreb: You’re right in that Kelly’s career is infinitely confounding, but I wonder if that’s just the nature of Notre Dame football in the modern era. It can still recruit relatively well — at the moment, Kelly’s 2020 Class is ranked eighth in the country by 247 Sports — but not as well as Alabama or Ohio or LSU (or Georgia, which is No. 6 in those 2020 recruiting rankings). Kelly’s won more than 70 percent of his games, which places him far ahead of the series of coaches who spent nearly two decades attempting to replicate the success of Holtz and all who came before. But he’s squarely in the middle historically, behind all of the Irish coaches who won national titles and became legends.

I wonder if Notre Dame’s insistence on remaining (essentially) independent in an era where the major conferences serve as the sport’s power brokers has hurt them in the long term. It feels as if it is stuck, and this game feels like yet another hugely pivotal moment for crashing through that ceiling. Kelly turns 58 next month. If he ever really does want to coach in the NFL— he has said he doesn’t, but things change — now would be the time. And if the Irish hit the wall again in this Georgia game — if they wind up going 9-3 and winning another Pinstripe Bowl — maybe it’s time for Notre Dame to import some fresh energy. That’s how it’s typically been in South Bend. The job is so all-encompassing and wearing that even the greatest Notre Dame coaches haven’t lasted much beyond a decade. Notre Dame’s never had a Bear Bryant or Eddie Robinson for a reason.

And I hate to even mention this, but you know who long dreamed of coaching at Notre Dame? Urban Meyer, who’s actually three years younger than Kelly.

But OK, there’s my obligatory Urban Mention of the Week (sponsored by Fox Sports). Do I envision any way that this Irish team can beat Georgia on the road? Honestly, I don’t. It’s very possible that this will wind up being the most complete team Smart has had yet. That soft pass defense ranking might be deceptive, when you consider that against Vanderbilt, the Bulldogs allowed only 109 yards through the air. (And sure, Vandy might be the chew-toy of the SEC, but the Commodores did throw for 420 against Purdue a week later.) The Bulldogs are also in the nation’s top 10 in sacks, scoring defense, rushing defense and total defense. Maybe they ain’t played nobody yet, but I don’t think all those rankings are entirely off base. 

I just think Georgia has far more talent, and that gets back to the central issue — maybe this is the best Notre Dame can be under Kelly, which isn’t bad, considering the Gipper ain’t walking through that door. But it’s not Clemson, Alabama or Georgia.

Am I overreacting here? And how do you envision the long-term future at Notre Dame? Has Kelly’s time passed, and if so, who could (or should) be the next Notre Dame coach — is there anyone who can lead the Irish beyond the ceiling that they appear to have hit, or should they just think back on the Charlie Weis era and be happy with what they’ve got?

Rooney: In a way, I think remaining independent has actually helped  the Irish of late, as they have managed a modicum of success both as the BCS was withering and as the CFP era began. They don’t have to deal with the ebbs and flows of strength in a conference, and no one can really claim they’re afraid to tackle a tough foe. Year after year, Notre Dame takes on a diverse and competitive slate. Since 2010, when Kelly came on board, they’ve averaged about four ranked opponents per season. You could mayyyybbbeee even make a case that they play up to the level of talent they face — 2016, one of three seasons in which they only faced two ranked teams, was Kelly’s worst finish. Perhaps I'm reaching there.

Nonetheless, it's all part of why Kelly is probably not long for this gig. Blame it on the ghosts of Rudy and the Gipper. Blame it on the eight trophies already in the case. But Notre Dame is a program that's expected to excel — by the administration, by the fan base, and by college football followers at large. When you're one of the winningest teams in the history of the sport, the tolerance for time between titles is low. That seven-year-itch is strong, and there aren't many coaches who successfully weathered long droughts between titles, especially while remaining with the same program. Seriously, it's a short list: Bear Bryant had an eight-year drought at Alabama, Barry Switzer went 10 years between titles at Oklahoma and Fielding Yost went 14 years at Michigan. (Considering that was from 1904-1918, I'm not sure it's even an especially reasonable comparison.) Show of hands: How many people think Brian Kelly belongs among that class of coach? Bueller?

I'm willing to go so far as to suggest that this season could be his last. There comes a point when anything save a Playoff appearance is a failure. Last year Notre Dame made the Playoff, but prior to that it has only sniffed the final top 10 in the CFP rankings once, in 2015.  If the Irish have, say, another 9-3 finish this season, doesn't it make sense that ND athletic director "Savvy" Jack Swarbrick would start to gather intel on interest for the job? Notre Dame is one of those gigs that is among the top five best in the sport. When and if a search does commence, Swarbrick and Co. should have their pick of the litter. So why, when the program does seem to have hit some sort of ceiling, would you settle for the devil you know?

That said, it doesn't really feel like there will be many Knute Rockne-caliber coaches on the free-agent market this year. We talked about the possibility of Urban Meyer heading out west for the USC job. If he can in fact be persuaded out of retirement (again), this role could certainly pique his interest. Bob Stoops is another one who, at 59 and presumably in good health, might be open to the right situation. But a lot of other championship-level skippers just started new gigs ... Mack Brown, Les Miles, Jimbo Fisher. And Saban, Swinney, Smart — they're not going anywhere. 

One interesting name that does come to mind is James Franklin. Sure, he's in Year 3 of a six-year contract extension and has a hefty million-dollar buyout, but you have to be impressed with what Franklin did in the wake of the Paterno/Sandusky wreckage. The Nittany Lions did regress a bit last season, but for fun let's say they run the table, or finish with only one "good" loss at Ohio State. They could sneak their way into a conference title and might have an outside shot at the Playoff if the chips fall right. Franklin could suddenly be considered one of the top coaching targets in the country. 

But that's a lot of "coulds" and "ifs." Even if the Irish aren't actively shopping right now, they should be putting a lot of names in the proverbial cart, for first dibs on checkout when the time comes.