Pre-Snap Preview: The Apple Cup

The Apple Cup currently resides in Pullman, Washington. Last year’s 16 penalties and failed fourth-down conversion at the goal line were significant in Washington’s defeat in this game. But those shortcomings are not forgotten. Jedd Fisch let it be known that he’s using last year and years past in this rivalry as motivation for the road trip this weekend. Washington and Washington State are 2-2 dating back to 2021. Less than five points have decided each of the last two meetings.

Apple Cup, Preview and Prediction

Dominate Offense

At this early point in the season, Washington’s offensive metrics are among the best in the nation. The offense ranks first nationally in available yards percentage entering week four. It has gained 83.9% of all possible yards this season. The group has a success rate of 51.7% (16th nationally), and is at its best when running the football. 

Jonah Coleman has a success rate of 59% when he touches the football and has rushed for seven touchdowns this season (most nationally). Much of the success on the ground can be attributed to an improved offensive line, which ranks third in the country in run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus. The group is generating 3.61 line yards per play on offense. Line yards represent the portion of yards per play that can be attributed to the push of the offensive line. The Husky offense is currently averaging 7.5 yards per play. 

As a team, Washington has gained 1,137 yards of offense in just two games. Over 600 of which have come on the ground. The dynamic nature of Demond Williams Jr. at quarterback adds a dimension that defenses need to respect. In doing so, the offense is opened up for its powerful run game and passing attack that spreads the field both laterally and vertically. There’s a lot to defend in this offense, and Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers referred to the talent as “elite” leading up to this weekend. But it’s not just the offense that will have an opportunity to separate this game.  

Forcing One Dimension

There are only five teams that have run the ball for fewer yards than Washington State this season. The Cougars have struggled to find an identity on the ground through three games. Washington State’s rushing success rate is just 31.3% (129th nationally), and it’s averaging just 2.4 yards per carry. The offensive line is one of just four teams nationally that’s generating less than two line yards per offensive play. The group isn’t getting sufficient push up front, and it’s showing up in the team’s stagnant rushing numbers through three games. 

“We have to continue to do what the other teams have done against them,” Fisch said on Thursday of Apple Cup week. The Husky head coach noted how his team’s run defense struggled early in the game against Colorado State. The Rams averaged nearly six yards per carry in the first half against Washington. But it improved in the second half, forcing -6 rushing yards on 11 attempts. Washington gave up just 76 rushing yards in the entire game against UC Davis. “We want to be able to go out there and continue to do that, and continue to play at a very high level against the run,” Fisch added. “We have a really good front in my opinion.” 

In their first three games, the Cougar offense has been forced into one dimension because of its inefficiency in running the football. As such, Washington State attempted 33 passes in week one, 42 in week two, and 35 last week. 

Third Down Defense

Now take a look at the disparity in third-down efficiency between these two teams early in the season. The sample set is small as we enter week four. But the Huskies have allowed a third-down success rate of just 25%, which ranks 7th nationally. Its first two opponents have had an average third-down distance of 8.54 yards to go. The Huskies will have the advantage on paper in this category, as Washington State is only converting 38.6% of its third downs this season. Its average distance to go is nearly 7.5 yards. If the defense continues this kind of third-down dominance, it has a chance to help create turnover opportunities because of it. 

“Getting off the field on the third down on a three-and-out, or taking the ball away, sign me up for either of those,” Fisch said on Thursday. “We’ve had one interception in each game… so our goal is to try to see if we can force some fumbles, see if we can attack the ball, see if we can catch a ball in the air that’s thrown to us. And if that happens, I think you can get some momentum in the takeaway game.” 

When you consider the combination of Washington’s third-down defense with forcing the Cougars into one-dimensionality, it can become a recipe for creating turnovers. Washington State has a passing down success rate of just 17%. Only three teams in college football have a lower rate in that category. When this Husky defense knows the football is going to the air, it’s a team that’s coached to attack the football.

Quarterback Questions

But a major variable for Washington in its preparation is the quarterback situation for the Cougars. Jaxon Potter, Julian Dugger, and Zevi Eckhaus all played in the game last week against North Texas. They combined for 211 passing yards, a 65% completion percentage, and three interceptions. In the week leading up to the Apple Cup, Rogers said that the quarterback position is an open competition. As such, Fisch and staff have the difficult challenge of preparing for different skillsets at quarterback. 

Potter has been the primary passer this season and was playing well entering last week’s game. Potter was 52 of 73 for 466 yards with four touchdowns prior to North Texas. But against the Mean Green, Potter struggled with decision-making and missed open throws. Eckhaus, who threw for 363 yards and three touchdowns in the Cougars’ bowl game last year, is just seven of 10 this season with 20 snaps on offense. 

Final Score Prediction

“We’ve only taken the ball away twice, and that’s not who we are, that’s not who we want to be as a program,” Fisch said during the bye week. “You also have to have that philosophy. It’s not just about a tackle, it’s about a strip. It’s not just about a sack; it’s about a strip sack. And it’s not just about getting a guy down, it’s about punching it out.” Washington’s staff continues to stress the importance of creating turnovers on defense. Washington State is a team that turned the football over five times against North Texas a week ago. It has given the football away six times on the season with a -4 turnover margin. 

Ultimately, Washington is farther along in its development of players, culture, and its understanding of what it wants to do on the field. It has an identity in year two under Fisch. The Cougars are still searching for that, just three games into the Rogers tenure. On paper, Washington has the advantage on the road. But games aren’t played on paper. And in rivalry games, certainly anything can happen. It will be a hostile road environment on Saturday night in Pullman, but the Huskies have eyes on reclaiming the in-state trophy. 

“We are looking forward to the challenge, to get the Apple Cup back here in Seattle, and that is our plan.”

Washington – 35

Washington State – 10