Pre-Snap Preview: Washington at Maryland, Prediction

Washington will cross three time zones heading to the nation’s capital, where the unbeaten Maryland Terrapins await. Mike Locksley’s program is led by a true freshman quarterback and contains a few impact true freshmen across its starting lineup. Maryland’s offense has taken advantage of how good its defense and special teams have been this season. As such, the Huskies will be tasked with a stout defensive opposition for the second-straight week.

Washington at Maryland, Preview

Malik Washington & Passing Game

“You look out there and it’s like you’re looking at Cam Newton.” Washington defensive coordinator Ryan Walters had substantial praise for Maryland starting quarterback Malik Washington this week. “Big, big arm. Throws with a lot of velocity, a lot of off-platform throws that get in the right location, he’s accurate.” Washington stands at 6’-5” and 230 pounds and brings a dual-threat ability to the offense. “[He] doesn’t take sacks, he’s hard to bring down. When they do ask him to run the ball, he can run and extend plays with his legs.”

This season, Washington has delivered eight touchdowns to just one interception with over 1,000 passing yards. Shaleak Knotts and Octavian Smith Jr. are the team leaders in receiving, with 543 receiving yards split almost evenly between the two of them. Knotts has caught a team-high five touchdowns this year. Add in Jalil Farooq, and the trio has a nearly even distribution of targets. Farooq and Knotts each have 24 targets, and Smith has 22. 

As such, the Terrapin offense will stress the secondary with its weapons. Washington expects Rahshawn Clark back this week at full health. The status of Tacario Davis is still not certain, but Fisch was optimistic this week about his return for Saturday’s game.

Finding A Hole in the Offense

As good as the Terrapins have been this season with the football, there is a hole in the offense that can be exposed by the Huskies. The Maryland offense has been particularly ineffective on third down. The Terrapins have converted just 18 third downs on 57 attempts on the season. The 31.5% ranks 122nd nationally and 17th in the Big Ten. Maryland has faced at least 14 third downs in each of its four games this year, and it’s never converted on more than five in a single game. Its best third-down performance this season came in its win against Towson, where Maryland converted just five of 14 third downs (35.7%). 

In a similar way, the Terrapin offense does not have a high success rate. When rushing, Maryland has just a 35.8% success rate (120th nationally), and when passing, its success rate is 40.7% (92nd nationally).

Despite these offensive struggles in late downs and success rate, Maryland has won all four of its games by an average of 21.8 points per game. Even if you remove its 44-17 win over Towson, its winning margin remains at an even 20 points per contest. This tells us two things. Number one is that its defense is playing tremendously well. And it is – allowing just 10.8 points per game, which is top 10 nationally. We’ll get to more on the defense later. The other thing it tells us is that the Maryland offense is not sustaining long drives, and that many of its scoring drives are taking advantage of short fields. 

Drive Sustainability

When you look at the Terrapins’ three-score win over Wisconsin, you’ll see that its first touchdown was a two-play, four-yard drive set up by an interception. Its second scoring drive was a five-play, 28-yard drive set up by a blocked punt. Maryland also had two field goal drives in the game (drives of 39 and 57 yards, respectively). And it sealed the game in the fourth quarter with a 62-yard touchdown pass to complete a 99-yard drive. That drive was an outlier. But even when you include it, the offense averaged just 23 yards gained per possession in Madison.

On the season, Maryland has completed just five 70-plus yard drives on the season. Its offense is averaging just 27.8 yards per drive all year. Maryland is gaining just 42.1% of its available yards, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally. A lot of this team’s offensive success has been created by the defense and special teams. The Terps lead the nation in turnover margin at +1.75 per game on the year. They’ve gained nine and only lost two. Maryland has scored 28 points off turnovers in four games.

The Huskies’ offense will be the most high-powered that the Maryland defense will have seen thus far. Wisconsin and Northern Illinois both rank outside the top 107 nationally in points per game and total yards per game. Florida Atlantic ranks 73rd in scoring offense. But the Owls rank 34th in total offense, averaging just 15 fewer yards per game than the Huskies.

Washington can exploit this weakness in the Maryland offense by sustaining drives itself and taking care of the football. The Huskies still rank third in available yards percentage (71.8%) and maintain a quality turnover margin (six gained, one lost). Even against the Buckeyes’ top-rated defense, Washington won the turnover battle and took three of its eight drives into the Ohio State red zone. The Husky offense can stress the Maryland offense by continuing its own offensive drive success on Saturday in College Park.

Another Defensive Test

Maryland’s success rate on defense this year is fourth-best nationally at just 29.3%. Additionally, it’s generating a lot of havoc for opposing offenses. Havoc plays include tackles for loss, forced fumbles, or passes defended. And against Wisconsin, Maryland’s havoc rate was 16%. It had 10 tackles for loss, an interception, and a pass breakup in that game. 

Much of that havoc has been generated by the Terrapins’ front seven. Maryland touts a pair of true freshmen EDGE rushers who have played at a high level this season. “Their two defensive ends pose a problem,” Washington offensive coordinator Jimmie Dougherty said this week. “Very athletic, very physical, very active guys that we know are going to be a problem.”

Sidney Stewart leads the team in both tackles for loss (6.5) and sacks (four). He’s also generated a team-high 19 quarterback pressures through the first four games on the schedule. Zahir Mathis stands at 6’-6” and has been just as impactful along the defensive front. He’s recorded four tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks on the season, and blocked a field goal in Maryland’s win over Wisconsin two weeks ago. 

“And really across the board their whole front seven, their linebackers [are] very athletic, very long, tall players that are rangey, just like we saw last week [against Ohio State],” Dougherty continued. And that’s telling regarding this Maryland defense, as the Huskies just played a Buckeye linebacking core with one of the best athletes in the country in Arvell Reese. Daniel Wingate is 6’-5” and Trey Reddick is 6’-4”. Wingate leads the team with 39 tackles (24 solo).

Prediction

This is not an easy trip for Washington. It had a long flight on Thursday, a day early, in order to get acclimated to the time change. And the Huskies have not won a game outside the state of Washington in the Jedd Fisch tenure.

But there’s a window for the Huskies to leave College Park with a road victory on Saturday. It begins with sustaining its own offensive drives against the tough Terrapin defense. Doing so is likely to spotlight the weaker areas of Maryland’s offense – third down offense and success rate – that haven’t caught up to it yet.

Washington – 27

Maryland – 23