Pre-Snap Preview: Washington v. Ohio State, Prediction

Question Marks in Secondary

For Ohio State, it’s going to be against a secondary with a potential missing piece. We won’t know the status of senior cornerback Tacario Davis until the availability report comes out two hours before kickoff on Saturday. He was out for the Apple Cup, and Fisch is keeping the cornerback’s health close to the vest in preparation for the Buckeye offense. On the season, Davis has been targeted seven times and has allowed just one completion for 10 yards. He recorded a pick and a pass breakup in two games played. His absence on Saturday would be a detriment to the Husky defense. As such, it’s likely that either a true freshman or redshirt sophomore will start at outside cornerback opposite Ephesians Prysock against Ohio State. Leroy Bryant started at cornerback in the Apple Cup, but he struggled in coverage. Bryant played 25 coverage snaps, was targeted seven times, and allowed seven receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. The staff inserted freshman Dylan Robinson in his place after Bryant allowed a long touchdown. Robinson played 16 snaps in coverage and was only targeted once. But the freshman did force a fumble in the fourth quarter. Rahshawn Clark can be expected to start at nickelback with the absence of Davis at corner. He’s been sure-tackling this season, with eight tackles, three stops, and zero missed tackles. Clark has given up six receptions for 63 yards this season on eight targets. But despite the higher completion percentage, he’s been mitigating big gains in coverage. Clark has allowed just seven total yards after the catch this season.

Sayin’s Down Field Excellence

Ohio State’s top two receivers, Smith and Carnell Tate, are each averaging north of 15 yards per catch on the season. Of Smith’s 315 yards, 115 have come after the catch. Behind those two, Brandon Inniss has the next-most receptions with five, but has yet to find the end zone. This group is going to test the back end of the Husky defense with its ability to stretch the field vertically. Quarterback Julian Sayin has been among the best in 20-plus-yard pass attempts this season. The redshirt freshman has completed nine of nine passes traveling 20 or more air yards. He’s thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions in this category with 43.8 yards per completion. One of those deep touchdowns came in the Texas game, and two were against Ohio. Washington relies heavily on man coverage responsibilities in the secondary. If the group is without Davis, the group will need to take a step forward this week in order to slow down the Buckeye passing attack.

Game-Planning Against The Spy

When you remove sack yardage, Demond Williams has run for 265 yards this season on 28 rushing attempts. That’s a head-turning 9.5 yards per attempt. Williams has broken off six runs of 20-plus yards through three games this season. That ranks fourth-most among all of college football, running backs included. Containing the Husky quarterback has been a problem for the team’s first three opponents. On Saturday, Ohio State will have a similar challenge. Linebacker Arvell Reese has been used as a quarterback spy frequently in the Buckeyes’ first three games. Against Texas, Ohio State held Arch Manning to just 38 yards rushing on 10 attempts. Dual-threat Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro had just three rushing yards against the Buckeyes. In those two games, Reese was responsible for seven combined pressures, recording a sack in each game. The Buckeye linebacker also notched a combined nine stops in those two FBS games. “We would expect them to have some spy variation,” Fisch said on Thursday of this week. “Whether they use Caleb Downs or whether they use Reese.” Williams’ running capabilities have opened up the offense on another level, allowing it to find success in other areas as defenses have to respect the speed of Williams. “They’ve gotta keep an eye on Demond, and then Jonah [Coleman], and Adam [Mohammed] and Denzel [Boston], and other players as well.” As far as preparing for the looming presence of Reese mirroring Williams, Fisch sounded confident in his plan for Saturday. “We understand that challenge of what they’re going to do to try to take away the quarterback run game. And we’ll have to adjust.”

Continuing Rushing Success

Washington has excelled this season with the zone run. Earlier in the week, we discussed the challenges that Ohio State poses to the zone run scheme, and Fisch commented on the strength of the Buckeye defensive line on Thursday. “We have to see how we match up one for one against Ohio State – one of the premier defensive lines in the country year-in and year-out.” This season, the Buckeyes have generated 79 stops according to Pro Football Focus. The unit has a success rate of 33.7% (27th nationally) against the run thus far on the season. “They run a lot of five down front,” Fisch said, referring to defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s diamond front. “When they have five down front they try to isolate and make everybody have one-on-one blocks. When that’s the case we have to win those one on one blocks.” The Buckeyes’ stuff rate is just 17.1% this year, which is better than just four Big Ten teams, and tied with Rutgers. Stuff rate is the percentage of plays that are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, and it does take into account both run plays and pass plays. The Husky offensive line is averaging 3.6 line yards per play, signaling significant push at the point of attack. But Saturday’s opponent will be different than anything the Husky line has faced thus far. “Each one of our players are going to have a challenge in and of itself,” Fisch said, “Whether they’re lined up against their D-Ends, or whether they’re lined up interior.”

Prediction

The Huskies have elite talent at the key skill positions on offense. But three games into the season, we have yet to see a receiver firmly step into the number two role. Dezmen Roebuck is second on the team in wide receiver receptions with six for just 104 yards. Raiden Vines-Bright is right behind him with just three catches on the year. The Buckeyes will be challenged by the trio of Williams, Coleman, and Boston. But Patricia’s group has a pair of college football’s best cornerbacks, an elite safety, and a physical front that can force Washington to work the football to other players on its roster. If Huskies not named Boston and Coleman can emerge on Saturday, this offense has an opportunity to continue its efficiency. If not, the Buckeye defense will be more likely to dictate the game’s pace.

Ohio State – 38

Washington – 37