Predicting college football's 12 most likely Playoff teams in 2025

Kansas State’s CFP odds: 22.2%

College football’s most competitive Power Four conference has everyone guessing who will win the Big 12 title and make the playoff after Arizona State went on a run after being picked as the league’s worst team last preseason.

No one is picking Kansas State to be the Big 12’s worst team this year, with Avery Johnson back under center alongside a strong backfield and tight end room, albeit behind a less experienced line, in tandem with a loaded defensive front seven.

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11. Boise State

Boise State’s CFP odds: 25.2%

Like last season, the Broncos are the near-consensus favorites to represent the Group of Five in its one guaranteed spot in the College Football Playoff field.

That’s despite the loss of all-timer Ashton Jeanty at running back, but with Maddux Madsen back at quarterback behind a good line, playing opposite a solid defense, and all facing a very winnable schedule again.

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10. Tennessee

Tennessee’s CFP odds: 38.5%

We’ll see how the Vols’ offense responds to losing four starting blockers, stud rusher Dylan Sampson, key receiving talent, and quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who stunned Rocky Top by transferring to UCLA this spring.

Joey Aguilar came in to replace him, high on production with 6,760 yards and 56 TDs over two years, but also occasionally on turnovers, and Tennessee boasts credible game-changing skill in the front seven and secondary again.

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9. Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s CFP odds: 45.6%

College football’s national title runner-up team should be well in the mix for one of the seven at-large bids again this season despite making a major change at quarterback, as CJ Carr steps in to replace dual-threat Riley Leonard.

Carr is low on experience, but has the huge benefit in one of the nation’s premier backfields led by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price and an Irish defense strong on the edges, at linebacker, and in the secondary again.

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8. Miami

Miami’s CFP odds: 46.3%

College football’s top-ranked offense a year ago loses Cam Ward, but scored a notable replacement in Carson Beck, the two-year starter at Georgia who surprised everyone by landing with the Hurricanes this season.

Expect this offense to lean more on the run to start out with two productive backs returning behind a line with three incumbent starters and after the unit lost five of its most productive receivers, but the real question is how will new play-caller Corey Hetherman rebuild a defense that was 68th in scoring last year?

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7. Clemson

Clemson’s CFP odds: 47.3%

Cade Klubnik lived up to his five-star potential last season, piling up 43 all-purpose touchdowns at the helm of a top 20 scoring offense, leading the Tigers back to the College Football Playoff after a four-year absence.

He returns with a strong receiving corps and one of the country’s best offensive lines, but Clemson needs to sort out its run game to balance things out, while new coordinator Tom Allen reboots a defense loaded with scrimmage tacklers but was weak against the run.

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6. Oregon

Oregon’s CFP odds: 57.5%

Dan Lanning is regarded as one of college football’s two or three best young coaching talents, but his roster-building acumen will be tested this year after losing so much talent on both sides of the ball.

Dante Moore moves into the QB1 role as a former five-star prospect, and while he has transfer back Makhi Hughes behind him, they’re all working behind a new-look line with four new starters and a defense that replaces key contributors in all phases.

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5. Penn State

Penn State’s CFP odds: 63.8%

Any team would kill to have the Nittany Lions’ continuity on offense, returning their starting quarterback, two thousand-yard rushers, and four line blockers, but the lingering question is how well can the receiver room come together now that Tyler Warren is out of the picture.

Jim Knowles comes over from Ohio State to lead this defense in one of the nation’s biggest coaching moves, and he inherits a rotation loaded at defensive end and with some very promising fixtures in the secondary.

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4. Alabama

Alabama’s CFP odds: 66.2%

Jalen Milroe is gone, putting even more pressure on second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer to prove he can design a productive offense in the absence of the departed dual-threat playmaking quarterback.

Luckily, Milroe’s successor — likely Ty Simpson, a former five-star prospect — will be aided by an elite wide receiver group led by human highlight reel Ryan Williams, while a talented defensive rotation with playmakers in every phase returns the bulk of its production from a year ago.

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3. Ohio State

Ohio State’s CFP odds: 70.6%

College football’s reigning national champions will look plenty different after losing both coordinators, each pivotal to that title run in their own right, star edge rushers, key blockers, their quarterback, and two thousand-yard backs.

But the nation’s top wide receiver is back in Jeremiah Smith, leading what might be the sport’s best receiving corps, and a talented defense with playmakers in the center of the field and in the secondary should keep the Buckeyes in the thick of it again.

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2. Georgia

Georgia’s CFP odds: 78.6%

One of five teams the ESPN prediction computers expect will win 10 games this season, the Bulldogs have their own replacements to make, including four blockers, some new receivers, and at the edge rushing positions, in particular.

Rebooting a run game that was 15th in the SEC is high on Georgia’s list, as well. The good news? Those three brutal road games it played against Ole Miss, Texas, and Alabama — in which it went 1-2 — are all at home this time around.

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1. Texas

Texas’ CFP odds: 83.9%

Turnover is a theme for the Longhorns, too, after watching more than a dozen players walk out the door, but what’s left and what came in from recruiting and the transfer portal should be enough to keep this team in the SEC title race from start to finish.

Arch Manning gets all the headlines as he finally assumes the QB1 role, and he’s aided by strong receivers and a productive ground game, even if they have to replace four of Manning’s blockers, but Texas also returns one of college football’s very best defenses.

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