Predicting Florida's 2025 Rushing Totals

A Dig Into The History

Under Napier, Florida’s offense has averaged 817 plays per year, with 55 percent being runs. The Gators have averaged 2,164 rushing yards per season, 4.8 yards per attempt and 170 yards per game. Napier’s offense has seen at least two running backs receive over 100 carries every year, with both having over 700 yards in every season but 2024. On average, the Gators top two rushers combine for 5.6 yards per carry.

Florida has also seen plenty of production outside of the running backs on the ground as well. Gators quarterbacks have averaged 245 rushing yards and five touchdowns since 2022, highlighted by Anthony Richardson’s 654 yards and nine touchdowns in Napier’s first year. Receivers have also seen at least five carries per year, averaging around 62 yards.

Florida’s average rushing production: 451 attempts, 2,164 yards, 25 TDs, 4.8 yards per carry, 170.3 yards per game.

2025 Total Rushing Projection

Projecting the Gators offense to take a huge leap in this upcoming season, I expect Florida’s rushing attack to be a key component in opening up passing production for Florida and their young gunslinger Lagway, once again, making the ground game the main focus of their offense.

I have Florida finishing the regular season at 812 plays overall, with 56 percent being rushing attempts, leaving 454 carries up for grabs. I expect the Gators to incorporate six running backs this season, while also seeing Lagway make an impact on the ground and multiple gadget receivers earn rushes.

Altogether, I project Florida’s total rushing statline to look like this:

2025 Rushing Production: 454 attempts, 2,269 yards and 26 touchdowns

2025 Gators' Individual Rushing Predictions

With the production established, here is my total 2025 rushing predictions, along where each rusher lands in the pecking order.

Notably, Baugh and Jackson both finish with over 700 yards, with Baugh holding the lead back role and finishing with nine touchdowns. Both backs are extremely talented and trusted by the staff, and I believe they become a top running back duo in college football this year.

Lagway finishes as the most productive quarterback on the ground under Napier since Richardson in 2022, showing a mobility that was all over his high school film. While his injury concerns may hold him from his true potential as a rusher, his 306 yards would have finished 11th in the SEC amongst quarterbacks. His projection also accounts for sack yards counting against his number, a college football requirement.

KD Daniels grabs hold of the third running back spot, a tight competition in fall camp, finishing with the fourth most yards on the year. He has had an impressive offseason, making plays in camp and showing his breakaway ability on multiple runs.

From the wide receiver position, Eugene Wilson III fills in as the main gadget receiver, a role he thrived in as a freshman. Vernell Brown III and Tank Hawkins also get carries as elusive speedsters that, so far through fall camp, Florida has looked to get the ball in space. All three have the ability to turn manufactured touches into huge plays in 2025.

Compared to the Country

In total, Florida’s rushing production projections would have resulted in a top 50 unit in the country last season, up 23 spots from their true finish on the year. The Gators projected 26 touchdown s would have landed tied for seventh amongst the nation, while their team 4.9 yards per carry and 189 yards per game would have both landed in the top 30.

Baugh’s 765 yards and nine touchdowns would have both been tied for seventh in the SEC, while his yardage total would have been tied for 90th in the entire FBS. Along with Jackson, Florida would have been one of two teams with two backs to record over 700 yards in the SEC, the other being Texas.

Altogether, the unit, combined with our passing projections, would make Florida’s offense a well-rounded threat that would be likely one of the best in the country. Though not considered elite, the projections would make Florida’s run game a powerful threat and a huge aid to their attack through the air.

Final Line

In total, I project Florida to finish with 454 attempts, 2,269 yards and 26 touchdowns on the ground in 2025.

I expect Baugh and Jackson to lead the way for the Gators, both recording over 700 yards, while quarterback Lagway and redshirt freshman back Daniels add to Florida’s attack in big ways. With their success in the run game, I expect Florida’s offense to be firing on all cylinders, opening up tons of opportunity through the air for the gunslinger Lagway and the Gators talented receivers, altogether making 2025 an explosive year for the Orange and Blue.