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Projecting Penn State's 2026 Over/Under Win Total

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Kyle Wood | Last updated Mar 20, 2026 8:30 AM ET

The breakthrough Penn State fans had been dutifully awaiting for years finally happened in 2024 when the Nittany Lions made the College Football Playoff. However, the followup to that run to the national semifinal was so disappointing that head coach James Franklin was fired before Halloween, ushering in a new era in Happy Valley.

Penn State searched long and hard for Franklin's successor before landing on longtime Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. His arrival in the Big Ten bodes well for the Nittany Lions. After a massive exodus in the transfer portal, Campbell brought over a chunk of the roster responsible for the best two-year run in Cyclones history. And Penn State's schedule sets up well for its first new coach in over a decade to hit the ground running in Year 1.

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The Nittany Lions bring back just five starters from a team that, somehow, fought its way to bowl eligibility despite injuries and Franklin's firing. Quarterback Rocco Becht, running back Carson Hansen, tight end Ben Brahmer and wide receiver Chase Sowell are among the reinforcements who followed Campbell from Ames to State College. There will be familiarity on offense as former Iowa State coordinator Taylor Mouser also made the move to Penn State. And on defense, former USC coordinator D'Anton Lynn was brought in to lead a unit that poached linebacker Caleb Bacon and safety Marcus Neal Jr. from a well-regarded Cyclones unit.

The schedule is surprisingly light given the depth of the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions avoid Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon this season. A home game against USC and trips to Michigan and Washington won't be easy, but Penn State is well-positioned to return to the upper echelon of the conference rather quickly.

Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood debate and project where Penn State's over/under win total should be set for the ’26 regular season:

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Projecting Penn State's 2026 Regular Season Over/Under Win Total

A view of the scoreboard at Beaver Stadium as Matt Campbell is announced as the new Penn State new head coach on Dec. 8, 2025, in University Park, Pennsylvania. © Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Steven Lassan:8.5
New coach Matt Campbell has a ton of transition to navigate on the roster front and just getting acclimated to Happy Valley and the Big Ten after 10 years at Iowa State. However, this schedule is about as favorable as it can be for the Nittany Lions. Big Ten frontrunners in Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana don’t appear on the ‘26 slate. Key swing games versus USC and Minnesota are at home.

Setting the over/under at 8.5 or 9.5 might be optimistic, but I only count three games where Penn State is likely to be an underdog. Also, Campbell’s track record in Ames suggests he will get the most out of this roster. A revamped depth chart includes standout quarterback Rocco Becht, along with a handful of other former Iowa State players to help ease the transition. This spring should provide valuable insight into just how far along Campbell’s rebuilding process is in Happy Valley.

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Kyle Wood: 8.5
There's a strong case for this total to come in a tick higher. You'll continue to hear a lot about Penn State's manageable schedule in the lead up to the season. And despite all the turnover taking place, there's familiarity with so many Iowa State teammates reuniting on the Nittany Lions. Remember how quickly Curt Cignetti's James Madison contingent found their footing at Indiana? That's the path for Penn State to outperform expectations.

Then again, the Cyclones were not necessarily a juggernaut in 2025. They went 5-3 in one-score games, including narrow wins over Arkansas State and Oklahoma State and a loss to Colorado. It could take some time for so many new starters to get accustomed to Big Ten competition. The long-term outlook for Penn State looks positive. And while 2026 could yield immediate success for Campbell and Co., measured optimism might be the right way to look at Year 1.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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