Projections Drop Iowa State to Ninth in Big 12 for 2025

Ford’s model, rooted in statistical projections and game-by-game simulations, likely docked the Cyclones for a few key reasons. Losses in the trenches on both sides of the ball have hurt the ‘Clones in years past, and that will be a popular topic again in 2025.

They also received a tough schedule, with games against Kansas State in Ireland, road games against TCU and Colorado, and home games against Arizona State, BYU, and Kansas. Additionally, the Big 12’s middle tier is often decided by one or two games. Last season, a ninth-place finish in the league was just two games out of first.

Still, the No. 9 spot raises eyebrows considering Iowa State was one win away from playing in the College Football Playoff just months ago.

While K-State and ASU headline the list, Iowa State’s placement behind familiar foes like Kansas and Baylor could be used as locker room fuel for Matt Campbell’s squad.

Campbell has made a career out of surpassing expectations, often doing his best work when his teams are counted out. With Rocco Becht under center and a maturing roster around him, Iowa State remains a team that nobody in the Big 12 wants to face in November.

And, if the Cyclones have proven anything, it’s that projections don’t define them; performance does.

Kelley Ford’s rankings might not be where Iowa State fans want to see their team, but history says this program thrives on being underestimated. If Campbell’s crew can clean up the details and stay healthy, the bottom half label may not stick for long.