Michigan State has a difficult schedule ahead of it the rest of the way. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Spartans are only favored in one of their eight remaining games and have the 21st-hardest remaining schedule in the country.
Across the final two-thirds of the regular season, there are certainly games that are easier and more difficult than others. Here is a ranking of those games, starting with the game that MSU should win the most.
The only game that Michigan State is favored in is against UCLA. The Bruins' performance so far this year has been poor, to put it lightly. One of the Big Ten's new West Coast teams has already lost to two Group of Five teams (at UNLV, New Mexico) and got demolished by Utah, 43-10.
With the 0-3 start, the Bruins have already fired head coach DeShaun Foster.
The Spartans will be hosting UCLA on Oct. 11. Another advantage MSU will have is that the game is at noon ET, or 9 a.m. PT.
Michigan State's second-easiest" game is its semi-home game against Maryland that caps off the regular season.
The Terrapins are off to a 4-0 start, but all three of their games in the non-conference schedule were Group of Five teams. Maryland got a great win at Wisconsin last week, but it appears like this might be the worst Badgers team in a while.
The most winnable game on the road slate for Michigan State is probably its trip to Minnesota on the first day of November.
So far this year, the Golden Gophers are 2-1, but they lost their only game thus far to a power conference team after falling at Cal 27-14 during Week 3. Minnesota's other wins were at home against Buffalo (27-14) and against FCS Northwestern State (66-0).
MSU's second-to-last regular season game and final road contest is a trip out to Iowa and Kinnick Stadium, one of the better home-field advantages in the Big Ten. Michigan State handled Iowa last year in East Lansing, 32-20.
This year, Iowa is also sitting at 3-1, but the Hawkeyes' only loss is a close 16-13 result while facing current No. 14 Iowa State on the road. They opened their Big Ten slate with a 38-28 win at Rutgers.
This is Michigan State's next game, and it is just a bit harder than a trip to Iowa right now.
Nebraska has perhaps the most loyal fanbase in all of college football and will certainly be a tough environment to play in. Like Iowa, the Cornhuskers' only loss is a three-point result against a ranked team, with Nebraska falling to current No. 19 Michigan 30-27 last weekend.
This game needs no introduction. It's not the toughest game left on MSU's schedule, but it's the most important.
Michigan has won the last three matchups in The Battle for Paul Bunyan, and the Wolverines will be searching for their first four-game winning streak in the series ever since Mike Hart labeled MSU as U-M's "little brother."
The Wolverines sit at 3-1 after just beating Nebraska on the road last week, and their only loss is a 24-13 game on the road to current No. 7 Oklahoma.
This might be a bit controversial, but it is in the opinion of this writer that the highest-ranked team on MSU's schedule this season shouldn't be considered the toughest game on the schedule, at least for right now.
I have this game as the second-toughest one for two reasons: Penn State hasn't played anyone remotely difficult yet, and MSU gets this game at home. So far, the Nittany Lions have faced Nevada, FIU, and Villanova. FPI labels it as the worst schedule in the entire FBS to this point.
They'll have plenty of chances to prove themselves before heading to East Lansing, though, so my opinion on this could change as soon as a couple of days from now. PSU has No. 6 Oregon this weekend, a road game at No. 1 Ohio State on Nov. 1, and No. 11 Indiana on Nov. 8 at home.
Now, for the reasons that I think the game at No. 11 Indiana is more challenging: the Hoosiers just destroyed current No. 23 Illinois 63-10 in Bloomington, and MSU is going to be walking into that same stadium, rather than playing at Spartan Stadium.
This game wasn't pretty in East Lansing last year, either. Michigan State scored the first 10 points of that game, but that doesn't mean much when IU scores the final 47 to win 47-10.
As of Sept. 24, ESPN's FPI only gives MSU a 6.6% chance of winning this game.
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