Ranking Oklahoma’s Three Most Winnable Games of 2025

With arguably the toughest schedule in college football in 2025, Oklahoma will take any big wins that it can get.

In addition to seven SEC games against teams that reached bowl eligibility last year, the Sooners will host Michigan — the 2023 national champion — as part of their non-conference slate. Both Sports Illustrated and 247Sports named Oklahoma’s 2025 slate the hardest in the entire nation.

Oklahoma should get easy wins in its non-conference games against Illinois State, Kent State and Temple. Illinois State is a respectable FCS program and reached that subdivision’s playoffs in 2024 — but the Sooners should be able to win comfortably with their advantages in athleticism and talent. And Kent State and Temple combined for just three wins last year.

Of OU’s SEC games and the Michigan contest, which are the most winnable?

After examining the most losable games on Thursday in the first of this three-part series, Sooners on SI will try to break down the games OU has the best chance to win.

Here are the Sooners’ most winnable games of 2025:

1. Missouri

Oklahoma’s loss to Missouri in Columbia last year was arguably the most heartbreaking of the Sooners’ 6-7 campaign.

OU led 23-16 with two minutes remaining after safety Billy Bowman Jr. returned a fumble for a touchdown.

The Sooners, though, allowed the Tigers to drive down the field and tie the game with 1:03 left. On the third play of OU’s ensuing drive, Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold fumbled, and Mizzou defensive end Zion Young returned it for a game-winning touchdown.

That loss was a gut punch and, at the time, seemed like it would keep OU from reaching bowl eligibility.

This year, the Sooners host a Mizzou team that looks much different than it did in 2024.

The Tigers lost quarterback Brady Cook, running back Nate Noel and wide receivers Luther Burden III and Theo Wease. Beau Pribula, a transfer from Penn State, will likely start at quarterback for Missouri.

Pribula appeared in 23 games for the Nittany Lions over four years, one of which was a redshirt season. Most of Pribula’s action came in garbage time, but he played admirably in his appearances, throwing for 424 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception in 56 pass attempts.

Pribula’s excellence as a starter is yet to be seen. He could be a star that keeps Mizzou competitive, or he could struggle to ignite the Tigers’ offense and lead them back into irrelevance.

While Mizzou’s offense is a significant question mark, its defense should be stellar.

The Tigers return Young and other standouts from last year, including linebacker Triston Newsom and defensive back Marvin Burks Jr. They also picked up edge rusher Damon Wilson II — the No. 3 player in the 2025 transfer portal, per 247Sports — from Georgia.

Still, Oklahoma should enter this game with an advantage.

Sooner fans are still upset about how last year’s game in Columbia ended, so Oklahoma Memorial Stadium will be packed when these teams play on Nov. 22. And with so many new players on Missouri’s offense, Oklahoma’s veteran-laden defense should be able to keep the Tigers’ offense from exploding.

2. Auburn

Despite Auburn being so unproven, college football analysts are largely very high on the Tigers entering 2025.

Auburn’s streak of losing seasons extended to four in 2024, as the Tigers missed out on a bowl game for the second time in three years. Oklahoma still needed all 60 minutes of its game against them to win, though, with the Sooners scoring 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 27-21.

Even after a disappointing 2024, Auburn is ranked No. 14 in ESPN’s Football Power Index. Joel Klatt of Fox Sports ranked the Tigers No. 22 in his post-spring top 25.

The Tigers could live up to the hype, but it’s hard to see at this point.

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Leading them will be Arnold, who transferred to Auburn in December. He failed to reach his 5-star expectations during his time in Norman, throwing for just 1,421 yards in 10 games last year. Auburn also lost leading rusher Jarquez Hunter and leading receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith to graduation.

The Tigers did, however, add weapons for Arnold in the offseason, signing wideouts Eric Singleton Jr. (Georgia Tech) and Horatio Fields (Wake Forest) and running back Durell Robinson (UConn) from the transfer portal. Plus, Auburn returns its entire starting offensive line from 2024.

This is another game where home-field advantage will be crucial for the Sooners. OU’s clash with the Tigers on Sept. 20 is its SEC opener, and Sooner fans will be out in droves to see their first conference games after contests against Illinois State, Michigan and Temple.

And while Arnold certainly has the potential to become a star, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be able to command a dominant offense, based on his Oklahoma sample size.

3. Ole Miss

Following the pattern of the first two winnable games, Ole Miss’ roster — on both sides of the ball — will be much different in 2025.

Oklahoma’s first SEC showdown against the Rebels started off well, with OU leading 14-10 at halftime in Oxford. But Ole Miss outscored the Sooners 16-0 in the second half to earn a comfortable 26-14 win.

Ole Miss finished the regular season 9-3, narrowly missing out on the College Football Playoff.

The Rebels will be without star signal caller Jaxson Dart, who was selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft by the New York Giants. They also lost seven other players who were drafted, and several others signed deals as undrafted free agents.

Austin Simmons, a redshirt sophomore, will likely get the nod as the Rebels’ starting quarterback. Simmons appeared in nine games in 2024, primarily in mop-up duty, completing 59% of passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns.

Simmons, like the aforementioned Pribula, could be excellent. But he’s still a question mark on Ole Miss’ offense with zero starts under his belt.

Coach Lane Kiffin did an admirable job shoring up the Rebels’ defense with transfers Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and Da’Shawn Womack (LSU). But it will still be hard for them to entirely replicate the production of guys like Walter Nolen, Trey Amos and Princely Umanmielen, who were all taken in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.

Even in a disappointing season, the Sooners were able to stay within striking distance of the Rebels. With a home-field advantage and an offense that’s expected to be much-improved in 2025, OU has a much better chance of beating Ole Miss this year.