Ryder Lyons Reshapes the Outlook of the Quarterback Position at BYU

On Tuesday, BYU pulled off a massive recruiting victory when five-star quarterback Ryder Lyons committed to BYU. Lyons will join the program for the 2027 season after serving a mission.

The addition of Lyons reshapes the outlook of the quarterback position at BYU. With the caveat, of course, that the transfer portal makes future roster planning more difficult than ever before. However, it appears that by adding Ryder Lyons, BYU has greatly increased their chances to find a star quarterback. Allow us to explain.

Recruiting is a game of probabilities. Sure, not all five-stars turn into great college football players. But in terms of percentages, more five-star prospects turn into great players than four-star prospects, and more four-star recruits turn out than three-star prospects. Let's call that the "hit rate" - the percentage of recruits that turn out be good/great players. The higher the star rating, the higher the hit rate.

Elite programs bring in high-level recruits at every position. With so many elite recruits on the roster, they are almost guaranteed to "hit" on a player or two at every position. It's simply a numbers game.

What does this have to do with BYU and the future at quarterback?

Ryder Lyons is a five-star quarterback. The "hit rate" for five-star quarterbacks is high compared to three and four-star quarterbacks. It's not a guarantee that he will be great, but there's certainly a good chance he will be. Fortunately for BYU fans, BYU does not have all its eggs in the Ryder Lyons basket.

Back in May, BYU picked up a commitment from former four-star recruit Bear Bachmeier. Bachmeier has all the physical tools to be a star quarterback in his own right. Between Bachmeier and Lyons, what are the odds that BYU can find a high-level quarterback? Pretty high, and certainly higher than they would have been if BYU only had one of the two.

But wait! There's more.

BYU has also signed three-star quarterbacks like Enoch Watson and Nolan Keeney. They also have a commitment from Skyridge quarterback Kaneal Sweetwyne. What are the chances that a three-star quarterback can become a star quarterback? It's not as high as the four and five-star quarterbacks, but it's not zero either.

After all, Zach Wilson and Jaren Hall were mid three-star quarterbacks in high school. BYU has proven that they can turn three-star quarterbacks into NFL Draft picks. However, the data suggests that most three-star quarterbacks will not become the success stories that Hall and Wilson were. Still, having these players in the pipeline is important when it comes to the numbers game.

Between Bachmeier, Lyons, Sweetwyne, Watson, and Keeney, what are the odds that BYU can find a high-level quarterback? Very high. If one of them doesn't reach their full potential, the odds are that someone else in the room will. That is the path to long-term, sustained excellence in college football.

Nothing is guaranteed in the transfer portal era, but on paper, it looks like BYU is positioned for high-caliber quarterback play in the future.

The Transfer Portal Element

Then there is the transfer portal element. There is risk associated with relying on the December transfer window, especially at quarterback. It's impossible to know which players will be available and what their eligibilty will look like. Even if you find a starting-caliber quarterback, there are unknowns in terms of fit within BYU's scheme and fit within the locker room. What BYU needs to avoid, in the opinion of this author, is one-year solutions at quarterback. That is a slippery slope to mediocre offense in the long run.

Ideally, BYU would like to have players in the system for at least a year. That allows the players to get comfortable in the offense and it allows BYU to evaluate whether that quarterback is truly capable of starting in Aaron Roderick's offense.

Before adding Bachmeier and Lyons, the Cougars had just three scholarship quarterbacks on the roster: Jake Retzlaff, McCae Hillstead, and Treyson Bourguet. With Jake Retzlaff entering his senior season in 2025, the future of the quarterback position appeared to be either McCae Hillstead/Treyson Bourguet or a transfer quarterback that BYU could add after the 2025 season.

Even if BYU felt good about either Hillstead or Bourguet in 2026, they would have needed a transfer quarterback from purely a numbers perspective.

Now, BYU has more options at its disposal and more clarity in the future. McCae Hillstead, Treyson Bourguet, and Bear Bachmeier will compete against each other for the backup quarterback job in 2025. They will also be proving to Aaron Roderick that one of them can become the starter in 2026.

What are the chances that one of them can be a high-caliber starter in 2026? It's impossible to say, but it's certainly higher than when it was only Hillstead and Bourguet in the future plans.

Hillstead and Bourguet will have the advantage in Fall camp with more knowledge of the playbook, but Bachmeier will be given the chance to push for that spot throughout the season. What remains to be seen is the status of BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff. If Retzlaff is unable to go for either the entire season or part of the season, the battle for the backup job becomes the most important storyline of the offseason.

After the 2025 season, BYU can evaluate the progression of those three quarterbacks. If they have seen enough to feel good about one of them being the full-time starter, they can go into the 2026 with the guys that were on the roster in 2025. If not, BYU can dip into the transfer portal like they would have needed to do otherwise. And if they do need a quarterback, a one-year solution might be a viable option knowing Lyons will be on campus for the 2027 season.

By adding Bachmeier and Lyons, BYU has increased their chances of finding a quarterback of the future.

That competition is exactly what BYU wants. The Cougars will let the competition play out in 2025 and go into 2026 and beyond with a few options at their disposal.