Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Game Preview

New Mexico State hosts Sam Houston on Thursday night to kick off college football’s Week 6 schedule for the 2025 season. The Aggies and Bearkats are both looking for their first victory in Conference USA play this year. 

With a significant roster overhaul under new coach Phil Longo, the ‘25 campaign is a transition year for Sam Houston. The Bearkats lost their top 16 tacklers from last season and returned only five starters on offense. That turnover has been on display early this fall, as Sam Houston sits at 0-4 after facing Western Kentucky, UNLV, Hawaii, and Texas. None of those matchups were decided by fewer than 17 points.

New Mexico State has fared slightly better than Sam Houston so far with a 2-2 record. The Aggies beat Bryant 19-3 and Tulsa 21-14 to start 2-0. However, coach Tony Sanchez’s team has lost two games in a row with defeats to Louisiana Tech (49-14) and New Mexico (38-20). Similar to the Bearkats, the Aggies also entered ‘25 in transition with just six returning starters.

These two teams have two previous meetings, with the all-time series tied at one victory apiece. 

Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Odds and Info 

Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, N.M.
Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 2 at 9 p.m. ET
TV: CBS Sports Network
Spread: Sam Houston -2.5
Over/Under: 54.5
Announcers: Jack Gordon, Taylor McHargue 

Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Keys to Victory

1. Can New Mexico State’s Offense Get on Track?
The Aggies’ offense is off to a slow start, ranking No. 135 in success rate and averaging only 4.8 yards per snap. The rushing attack has been especially problematic, as New Mexico State averages only 1.5 yards a carry and 39.5 yards a contest. A revamped offensive line has been an issue, surrendering 14 sacks (3.5 a game) and struggling to clear rushing lanes for running backs Kadarius Calloway and Dijon Stanley (out Thursday night due to injury).

Quarterback Logan Fife - a transfer from Montana - was brought in to upgrade the passing game this offseason and has thrown for 1,017 yards and five touchdowns through four contests. Fife has capable receivers in Donovan Faupel (19 catches), PJ Johnson III (13), TJ Pride (four) and tight end Gavin Harris (15). With the struggles on the ground, Sanchez and coordinator David Yost will lean on Fife's arm on Thursday night.

Although Sam Houston has played a tough schedule, a defense giving up 42.8 points a game and ranking No. 128 in success rate, could be the perfect opportunity for New Mexico State to get its offense on track.

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2. Did Sam Houston’s Offense Benefit from an Off Week?
With a difficult schedule, new offensive scheme, and an offseason quarterback battle under Longo, it’s no surprise Sam Houston’s offense is off to a slow start. The Bearkats have failed to score more than 24 points in a single contest and average only 4.4 yards a play.

Could the off week and having extra time to prepare for New Mexico State help get this unit on track? Senior Hunter Watson opened ‘25 as the No. 1 quarterback, but Mabrey Mettauer and Landyn Locke have both played this season. Watson enters Thursday’s game as the likely starter, but he’s tossed two picks and averages only 5.1 yards per attempt. His ability to make plays on the ground to go with running backs Landan Brown, Elijah Green, and Alton McCaskill (missed last three games due to injury) is a tough matchup for a NMSU defense allowing 173.5 rushing yards a contest and expected to be without standout linebacker Tyler Martinez due to injury.

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3. The Turnover Battle
Thursday night’s matchup features two teams with struggling offenses, but New Mexico State (5.6 yards allowed per snap) has been better than Sam Houston (6.7) on defense. With this game projected to be close (spread under a field goal), a short field or a score on defense could be decisive. The Aggies are holding teams to 3.97 yards a carry and are tied for second in CUSA with seven takeaways. Sam Houston’s defense has struggled in all areas so far, allowing 13 plays of 30-plus yards and allowing teams to convert nearly 52 percent of third downs. One mistake by either offense or a takeaway by the defense could end up deciding this tossup matchup.

Final Score Prediction: New Mexico State 27, Sam Houston 24

If either team wants to reach the postseason, a win on Thursday night is a must. This matchup could set the stage for a run over the final two months of the season in conference play. Neither offense has been prolific, and there are question marks for both defenses. However, at home, the guess here is the Aggies are slightly better on defense and can lean on Fife to make a couple of throws to win in the fourth quarter.

ATS: New Mexico State +2.5
Over/Under: Under 54.5