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Jayden Daniels Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Scout's view: Is Heisman winner Jayden Daniels a first-round pick?

By Daniel Kelly | Last updated 12/15/23

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL.

QB Jayden Daniels had a great season at LSU, culminating in winning the Heisman Trophy — college football's most prestigious individual award. However, having success in college doesn't always equate to success in the NFL.

I have studied Daniels through my NFL-colored glasses since he played at Arizona State from 2019-21. (He transferred to LSU in March 2022.) In fact, I've probably studied more of his film than any analyst, 21 games over the past three seasons. I vacillated between a second- and fourth-round grade on him before finally landing on a third-round grade for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Meanwhile, The 33rd Team — created by former NFL executive Joe Banner and my old boss at the Jets, Mike Tannenbaum — put a first-round grade on Daniels. "Several traits in his game are reminiscent of Lamar Jackson when he came out of Louisville," former Vikings GM and The 33rd Team's Rick Spielman wrote, referencing the Baltimore Ravens QB.

Daniels is a challenging evaluation because he "looked the part" in 2023. He ran like the wind, threw a sweet deep ball and produced 135 explosive plays (h/t SBNation). However, when projecting him to the NFL, this dude — who stands 6-foot-4 and weighs 210 pounds — is way too frail-looking to last at such a punishing position.

Being thin isn't necessarily the issue — Daniels' insatiable desire for contact when he runs is the problem. All I can think of when Daniels is running is the injury that basically ended the career of former NFL QB Robert Griffin III.

Sure, Daniels is capable of sliding or ducking out of bounds, but that's not who he is. Running is a big part of his game. In five college seasons, he rushed 617 times for 3,307 yards and scored 35 touchdowns — 22 in two seasons at LSU alone.

How long will Jayden Daniels last in the #NFL running like this? pic.twitter.com/DKuJhET28Y
— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) December 7, 2023

Here are three additional concerns about Daniels:

1. Leads with an inconsistent rhythm

A QB is like a drummer in a band. This is the single-most important aspect of quarterbacking. The offense depends on a predictable rhythm from the QB to operate with cohesion. This is especially true for the receivers running timing routes. Daniels' footwork and drop-back depths before throwing are as unpredictable as the stock market, as is his average-looking ball placement in the short-to-intermediate route levels (0-19 yards).

2. Uncomfortable in the pocket

He's as good as anyone when he settles down and throws, but that's not the norm. Daniels is filled with nervous energy and often looks like he's playing scared. The nervous energy is what fuels him, but it also can cause him to rush throws and take off running prematurely.

3. Mental lapses

Daniels occasionally freezes while setting up in the pocket. This causes him to hold the ball too long. Granted, this cleared out huge open areas for Daniels to exploit on the ground, but this also resulted in him taking 65 sacks the past two seasons and 129 sacks overall over five seasons. His momentary lapses of judgment can cause him to throw it short of the sticks on third down or to toss an occasional ill-advised pass among defensive backs.

Bottom line

Daniels' accolades, production (No. 3-ranked QB in the FBS in 2023) and the hype that surrounds him might be enough to get him selected in the first round. I like his toughness and aggressiveness driving the ball downfield (11.7-yard average this season), but I see him as an NFL backup sooner than later. My eyes and brain tell me he'll be a bust rather than a star.

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