Seven Big 12 Teams Make Phil Steele’s Annual Surprise Rankings

Phil Steele recently released his list of 16 surprise teams for the 2025 college football season, and the Big 12 landed an impressive seven selections.

Topping the group is Utah at No. 4, followed by Arizona State (No. 6), Baylor (No. 8), Iowa State No. 10), Kansas State (No. 12), TCU (No. 15), and Texas Tech (No. 16).

Steele’s picks reinforce what many insiders are already calling the Big 12 the league to watch. In his annual predictions, the Pac‑12 exile Utah emerges as a legitimate dark horse, buoyed by a strong roster and high expectations. Arizona State also earns its spot, entering 2025 with a revamped offense and a chip on its shoulder after last year’s title run.

Baylor is highlighted as a sleeper to watch, led by returning quarterback Sawyer Robertson and his top receiving targets, giving Steele confidence that the Bears can surprise in 2025. Meanwhile, Iowa State lands a top-10 surprise tag, thanks in part to Rocco Becht’s stability at quarterback and the program’s consistency under Matt Campbell.

Kansas State earns some attention as well, part of Steele’s “superpowers” cluster at the top of his Big 12 power poll. TCU and Texas Tech also make the cut, reflecting Steele’s belief in the league’s depth and unpredictability.

For conference watchers, that many Big 12 teams ranked as dark-horse candidates confirms the league’s growing status as a hotbed of potential breakout seasons.

If Steele’s track record holds, expect Big 12 fans to see a handful of surprises out of the underdogs. With seven teams carrying expectations beyond their billing, the conference could deliver more shocks than any other Power Four league in 2025.