SP+ Predicts Virginia-NC State Final Score

NC State is favored by the oddsmakers in this game and SP+ thinks the Wolfpack is going to win as well, but not by much. The Wolfpack are projected to win 28-26 and SP+ gives NC State a 55% chance to win this game.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

NC State will be a tough test

NC State is a tough opponent to play, especially in Raleigh, and Virginia head coach Tony Elliott has a lot of respect for Dave Doeren's team:

"Right, the takeaways were discipline. You got to stay disciplined. You're playing against a very good opponent, especially at the end of the game. You got to finish it the right way. And very similar, they're a physical football team, want to run the football. They got an even more dynamic quarterback.

Now they're very similar to what they've always been in the trenches. They're big up front athletic linebackers can run and then they got athletes in the secondary. So it's a typical NC State team. It fits coach (Dave) Doeren's identity and how they approach it. He's a defensive guy and he wants to wants to win up front with the defensive line be physical and then offensively, you know, he wants a he wants an offense that can that can line up put their hand in the dirt and come after you. So that's what you see out of them.

Some really, really good skill guys, too, that can make you, that force you to defend the field vertically and horizontally."

Virginia's defense is going to need to be ready for the Wolfpack offense. NC State has a talented quarterback in CJ Bailey and a talented group of pass catchers. Slowing them down might be the key to the game on Saturday.

Virginia has a chance to start the season 2-0 if it can beat the Wolfpack (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2).