Sun Belt Football 2026 Predictions

Player movement and constant change has been a theme for Group of 6 conferences in the transfer portal and NIL era of college football. The Sun Belt Conference in ‘26 sums up this era well, as just two teams return double-digit starters (Arkansas State and Louisiana), while the rest of the league was decimated by personnel departures. In addition to the player movement, coaching is a significant storyline this fall. Last year’s champion (James Madison) is under the direction of a new coach (Billy Napier) after Bob Chesney departed to UCLA. Can Napier keep the Dukes atop the league? That’s one of the biggest storylines entering ‘26. 

James Madison is Athlon’s pick as the Sun Belt frontrunner, but the gap between the Dukes and the rest of the league is small. Old Dominion, Marshall, and Georgia Southern could challenge JMU in the East. And in the West, Troy is a slight favorite over Arkansas State, Louisiana, and Louisiana Tech. 

Considering all of the change and turnover from the previous year, the Sun Belt is arguably one of the toughest conferences to project in ‘26.

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How does Athlon Sports project the Sun Belt for 2026? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 14 teams in the Sun Belt for this fall:

With a 4-20 record since taking over at Georgia State, the ‘26 season marks a critical point in coach Dell McGee’s tenure. Despite the low expectations after going winless in Sun Belt play, the Panthers have optimism for a step forward. Quarterback Cameran Brown (1,296 yards and 13 passing TDs) flashed potential when healthy in ‘25. Also, three returning starters form a solid foundation on the offensive line, and tight end Grant Hollier (21 catches) should push for all-conference honors. Finding a replacement for No. 1 receiver Ted Hurst and sparking the ground game (12th in the Sun Belt last year) is a must. McGee reset the defense after this unit allowed 37.8 points a game in ‘25. New co-coordinators Cam Clark and John Haneline inherit a couple of promising pieces in end Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson and safety Deuce Walker but also need several transfers to make an instant impact for this overall group to improve.

After a successful stint at Missouri State (19-16 over three years), coach Ryan Beard is tasked with elevating Coastal Carolina back into Sun Belt title contention. However, with over 50 new players, the Chanticleers may need a rebuilding year (or two) to reach that goal. A handful of the incoming transfers followed Beard from Missouri State to Coastal Carolina, including potential starting quarterback Deuce Bailey. Running back Dominic Knicely (388 yards) and receiver Robby Washington top the list of key holdovers expected to play major roles in ‘26. A retooled offensive line and defensive improvement are likely to decide how high Beard’s team climbs this fall. A revamped defensive line features a group of transfers counted upon to make an instant impact, while linebackers Tray Brown and Se’Veon McDowell and cornerbacks Ja’Marion Wayne and Myles Woods provide some experience for Beard and coordinator L.D. Scott to build around.

The Dowell Loggains era in Boone started off on a promising note with a 4-2 mark. However, the Mountaineers slumped down the stretch, dropping six of their final seven games to finish 5-8. Improving an offense that averaged only 5.2 yards per play in Sun Belt action is the top priority for Loggains’ squad this fall. Former Purdue and Arkansas transfer Malachi Singleton could provide a spark under center, but sophomore running back Jaquari Lewis (618 yards) should be the focal point of Loggains’ attack until the passing game develops. Transfers at receiver (Chris Lofton and Dazmin James) and on the offensive line (Mac Walters, Devon Manuel and Kamron Burris) will be counted upon to fill key voids. Loggains also needs newcomers to step up to help a defense that surrendered 6.1 yards a snap in Sun Belt play last fall. Linebacker Colton Phares is among the conference’s top returning defenders.

The Eagles are projected to finish fourth among teams from the Sun Belt’s East Division, but there’s little separation between coach Clay Helton’s squad and the predicted No. 1 (James Madison). If former North Carolina/LSU/Texas A&M signal-caller Max Johnson provides steady play under center, and new coordinator Mike Mutz improves a leaky defense, then Georgia Southern would have pieces in place for a run at the division crown. Helping to ease Johnson’s transition to Statesboro is one of the Sun Belt’s top receiving corps (including Josh Dallas returning from injury), along with a group of capable running backs. After ranking No. 136 nationally in defensive success rate last year, Mutz has only one way to go in his first season in charge of the signals. The Eagles have plenty of experience returning on this side of the ball, with nose tackle Latrell Bullard, linebackers MJ Stroud and Brandon Tyson, and stalwart cornerback Chance Gamble back from injury to anchor the secondary. How much progress this unit makes could determine whether or not Georgia Southern is playing for the conference crown this fall.

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Although the Thundering Herd finished 1-4 in their final five games, a 5-7 record was a solid debut for coach Tony Gibson after navigating a major roster overhaul in his first season in charge. Marshall is on better footing entering ‘26 and is expected to contend for the Sun Belt East Division title behind quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. The senior powered an offense that averaged 6.1 yards per play in conference snaps last fall and has plenty of help at the skill spots and an experienced line to lead the way. For Marshall to contend for the division crown, improvement on defense is a must. Gibson’s group allowed 32.8 points and six yards per play in Sun Belt games last year. Improving the secondary is a priority, while transfers are expected to help fill key voids up front and at linebacker.

The Monarchs are coming off their best season (10-3) under coach Ricky Rahne. And despite major personnel losses, a run to an East Division title is within reach. A defense returning five starters from a group that allowed only 18.5 points a game should be the strength of the ‘26 squad. Up front, DeAndre Lynch and Chris Forbes headline a rush defense that ranked second in the Sun Belt, while linebacker Koa Naotala is back after missing nearly all of ‘25 due to injury. The secondary is in good shape with safety Mario Easterly and cornerback Zion Frink leading the way. Rahne’s offense is expected to be a work in progress early in the ‘26 campaign. Sophomore quarterback Quinn Henicle flashed potential in a start against USF in the Cure Bowl last year but has only 40 career pass attempts. Running back Devin Roche (630 rushing yards in ‘25) is expected to be a focal point of this attack, but the Monarchs are breaking in five new starters up front and navigating a revamped receiving corps.

The East Division is wide open in ‘26. Although the Dukes take the top spot here, this team is navigating a significant transition under new coach Billy Napier. Gone are several stalwarts from last year’s squad that won the conference and earned a playoff spot, including quarterback Alonza Barnett III, running back Wayne Knight and defensive end Sahir West. Settling a quarterback battle featuring Memphis transfer Arrington Maiden, JC Evans, and Cam Coleman is the top priority in the fall. The strength of the offense should be the ground game featuring running backs George Pettaway and transfer Nick Herman, with a couple of transfers joining senior (and returning starter) Zach Greenberg to round out the starting unit. The theme of new faces needing to emerge continues on defense. Just two starters - lineman Amar Thomas and linebacker Gannon Weathersby - are back for new coordinators Robert Bala and Josh Linam. Napier’s last tenure at Florida didn’t work out. However, he went 40-12 at Louisiana from 2018-21. JMU hopes that success translates again to the Sun Belt in ‘26.

After a promising 5-7 debut under coach Bryant Vincent, the Warhawks took a step back with a 3-9 record and finished ‘25 on an eight-game losing streak. Escaping the basement of the Sun Belt’s West Division will hinge largely on offensive improvement. ULM averaged only 16.6 points a game last year and struggled to generate big plays or find consistency in the passing game. Quarterback Aidan Armenta and a revamped receiving corps need to take a step forward under new coordinator Jesse Montalto for the Warhawks to challenge for a bowl. Transfer running back Donald Chaney could rank among the Sun Belt’s top newcomers, but the offense is also navigating four new starters on the line. ULM’s defense held its own last season despite the offensive shortcomings, holding Sun Belt offenses to just 5.4 yards per play and finishing No. 19 nationally in success rate. Keeping that level of performance in ‘26 won’t be easy. The Warhawks bring back only two starters and have major holes to fill in the secondary and up front in the trenches. 

For the second year in a row, Southern Miss is navigating a major roster overhaul and coaching transition. After a successful turnaround from 2024 to ‘25, coach Charles Huff departed after one season to Memphis, prompting the program to promote offensive coordinator Blake Anderson to the top spot. Anderson is no stranger to life in the Sun Belt. From 2014-20, he compiled a 51-37 record as the head coach at Arkansas State. With just one returning starter (center Broderick Roman), the ‘26 season appears to be a reset year for the program. Both sides of the ball are counting on transfers to fill starting voids and to make an instant impact. But on offense, there’s some experience returning with running back Robert Briggs, along with quarterbacks Landry Lyddy and John White, who are competing with Illinois transfer Ethan Hampton to start. Anderson landed several intriguing transfers on both sides of the ball. If this staff can get the most out of that talent, contending for a bowl isn’t out of the question.

Coach Major Applewhite’s squad aims to rebound in ‘26 after a 4-8 record last fall. Quarterback Bishop Davenport (21 total touchdowns last year) anchors an offense replacing leading rusher Kentrel Bullock and receivers Devin Voisin and Jeremy Scott. However, the cupboard isn’t bare around Davenport, as right tackle Ethan Hubbard returns to lead a line in transition. Also, Keenan Phillips and PJ Martin should be an effective backfield duo, while Anthony Eager headlines a revamped receiving corps. New defensive coordinator Todd Orlando inherited only three returning starters from a unit that allowed over 30 points a game in Sun Belt play and struggled to stop the run. Finding the right mix up front early is key to also help alleviate the pressure on a revamped secondary. 

A streak of consecutive bowl appearances seemed poised to end with the Ragin’ Cajuns sitting 2-6 last November. However, coach Michael Desormeaux’s team rallied with four consecutive victories to earn the program’s eighth straight postseason trip. Continuing that momentum into ‘26 is likely to hinge on how far a defense that allowed 31.3 points in Sun Belt play can improve with just two starters back. Although major concerns remain about this group after spring ball, it’s a different storyline surrounding the offense. Quarterback Lunch Winfield (20 total touchdowns) gave this unit a spark down the stretch and was instrumental in the push to six victories. Winfield needs to take another step forward as a passer, but his ability to make plays on the ground with a revamped running back room is crucial. Receiver Shelton Sampson Jr. (a former LSU transfer) is a rising star, and the offensive line should be among the best in the Sun Belt with four returning starters. With Troy and Arkansas State coming to Lafayette this fall, Desormeaux’s team has a favorable path to the conference title game.

The Bulldogs enter the Sun Belt on a high note following last year’s 8-5 record and bowl victory over Coastal Carolina. Also, with seven returning starters, coach Sonny Cumbie has a solid foundation to lean on during the conference transition. Quarterback Blake Baker is back after missing time at the end of ‘25 due to a torn ACL but will share time with Trey Kukuk (609 rushing yards). Cumbie and new coordinator Nathan Young have two capable quarterbacks, but a revamped running back and receiver room are question marks. Louisiana Tech’s defense thrived at takeaways (25) last season, which lifted this unit to a No. 22 finish nationally in success rate. Senior linebacker Kolbe Fields was off to a torrid start last year with 39 tackles in the first five games before a season-ending injury. He’s back to anchor the second level, with fellow senior Emmanuel Oguns leading the way up front. The biggest concerns on defense are in a completely revamped secondary after standouts Jakari Foster, Jacob Fields and Michael Richard departed. 

After a 1-4 start, the Red Wolves finished 2025 on a tear. The program won six of their final eight games to lift coach Butch Jones to back-to-back winning records in Jonesboro. The next step for Jones is to guide Arkansas State to its first Sun Belt title game - a goal that’s within reach in ‘26 if a couple of answers emerge on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor transferred to Iowa State, leaving four candidates - Trey Owens, Ethan Crawford, Drew Dickey and Jérémy St-Hilaire - to battle under center. The winner of the quarterback battle has ample support returning at the skill spots with Devin Spencer and Kenyon Clay anchoring the backfield, and Hunter Summers and Chauncy Cobb back at receiver. Three starters are back up front, but this unit must improve after allowing 30 sacks and struggling to open up holes for the ground game. Outside of the quarterback competition, the Red Wolves’ biggest concern is a revamped defensive line. A secondary returning safeties AG McGhee and Brandon Barnes, along with the addition of Kennesaw State transfer Five Hamilton, should be the strength of the defense.

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The Trojans have plenty of question marks to address with just five returning starters. However, coach Gerad Parker’s team is still the pick to beat in the West after claiming the division crown last year. Defense was the strength of the ‘25 squad, holding Sun Belt teams to 25.1 points a contest and wreaking havoc at the line of scrimmage with 37 sacks. Despite major personnel turnover, confidence should be high for coordinator Dontae Wright to keep this unit near the top of the conference. Edge Donnie Smith (13.5 TFL) is among the Sun Belt’s top returning defenders, while a mix of transfers and returning upperclassmen should ease the overall transition. Parker also hopes to offset any defensive regression with more production on offense. After averaging only 23.5 points a game last year, Parker hired Adam Austin from Tarleton State to jumpstart this group. The pieces are in place to easily improve on the stat sheet. Quarterback Goose Crowder is among the Sun Belt’s top returning signal-callers, with Tucker Kilcrease providing an experienced (and capable) No. 2 option. The Trojans have intriguing transfers to fill the gaps at running back and receiver. And up front, left tackle Elijah Prather returns after missing most of the ‘25 season due to injury. A Nov. 28 date at Arkansas State could decide a spot in the Sun Belt title game.

James Madison over Troy