TCU Football Opponent Preview: Cincinnati Bearcats

When Cincinnati started the 2024 college football season 5-2, it didn't receive much press. Perhaps the Bearcats were on the verge of becoming one of the sneakier good teams nationally. They barely lost to Pitt after a late-game implosion (a Pitt team that was pretty good, at the time) and were nudged out by Texas Tech in a wild shootout; wins came over Miami (OH), a 34-0 romp of Houston, and Arizona State – yes, Big 12 Champion Arizona State.

But then the wheels fell off. Satterfield wouldn't lead the Bearcats to a win beyond October 19, and they went 0-5 down the stretch when all that was needed for a bowl game was a single win. There were some close losses (31-24 to West Virginia) and some not-as-close losses (41-15 at Kansas State). A painful lack of offense led to this skid as Cincinnati wouldn't front 25 points after September.

And so the grumblings began – Satterfield enters 2025 on the hot seat after an 8-16 start.

Cincinnati Bearcats Offense Preview

Quarterback Brendan Sorsby returns for his junior season, looking to create a spark in the lifeless offense that cost Cincinnati a bowl last year. It wasn't really Sorsby's fault–at least not all of the blame can be placed on him–as the rising junior threw for over 2,800 yards, 18 touchdowns, just seven interceptions, and added 447 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. He's a dual-threat that runs the RPO offense quite well.

Cincinnati calls upon Wisconsin (and Oklahoma) transfer Tawee Walker at running back to try and recover over 1,000 rushing yards vacated by Corey Kiner, now with the San Francisco 49ers. Walker ran for over 850 yards with the Badgers last season and offers some pretty good upside. Behind him is Evan Pryor, an Ohio State transfer who averaged 7.5 yards per carry on 56 attempts last season.

The receiving corps is completely rebuilt through transfers, as four of the top five from last season are gone. Lindenwood (FCS) transfer Jeff Caldwerell earned first-team all-conference honors after turning in a 1,000-yard receiving season (19.5 per catch!) while shifty possession receiver Cyrus Allen comes in from Texas A&M. Tight end Joe Royer was a first-team All-Big 12 selection last year and earned those honors again this preseason; he's the lone top-five receiver returning (521 yards).

There's some talent along this offensive line, but just two starters from last year return. The other spots will be manned by Ball State transfer Taran Tyo (an All-MAC honoree), South Dakota transfer Joe Cotton (an All-Missouri Valley selection), and Evan Tengesdahl (who appeared in 11 games last season for Cincinnati). Center Gavin Gerhart made 36 starts over the last three seasons and presents the anchor for this line. It should be decent to good.

Cincinnati Bearcats Defense Preview

The big-ticket name on defense is tackle Dontay "The Godfather" Corleone. After a health scare in August 2024, Corleone returned to the field and earned all-conference honors for a third time, this time on the first team. At 6-foot-1, 330 pounds, he's a force in the middle and should be at the center of all opposing game plans. Three others in the front six of Cincinnati's 3-3-5 return, but this is a unit that needs to improve.

Coastal Carolina transfer and first-team all-name selection Matthew McDoom looks to bolster a defensive secondary that was average last season. He's joined by two other transfers at safety, Tayden Barnes (New Mexico State) and Xavier Williams (Middle Tennessee). In Conference USA, these were premier players. But how they translate to the Big 12 is yet to be seen.

Cincinnati's defense really lacked a true cleanup player last season. Tackles were evenly distributed, but its leading tackler only notched 69 of them (compare to around 80+ for other FBS teams). Sophomore Jiquan Sanks could be that player at APEX after logging 42 tackles in six starts out of high school. Williams recorded 77 tackles at MTSU and could be another candidate to step into that machine role.

There wasn't one underlying problem with this defense and, at times, it played exceptionally well (see: holding ASU to 14 points!). But there were too many times where the defense just didn't do enough, and neither did the offense. It'll need to step into a more consistently good role this season.

Best Case Scenario For Cincinnati

Satterfield needs to make a bowl game in 2025, or Cincinnati likely replaces him. A sub-.500 mark by November may even do the trick. Fortunately, the Bearcats are capable of making a bowl this year thanks to an advantageous schedule and lots of returning FBS experience, transfer or otherwise.

The opener against Nebraska is a tricky contest that takes place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City (home of the Chiefs). Though "neutral," Nebraska fans are expected to dominate attendance in this one, and the Huskers project highly this season. The rest of the non-conference includes Bowling Green and FCS Northwestern State, both exceedingly winnable games. The Bearcats avoid Kansas State and Arizona State, and handle Iowa State and Baylor at home. Games at Utah and TCU project to be their toughest tests.

Rather than offer a laundry list of what Cincinnati needs to improve upon, it's really just a 20% effort. The offense needs to improve by 20% to turn losses like 20-13 against TCU (in tough conditions) and 28-27 to Pitt earlier on into wins. On the other side, 20% more consistency in the defense keeps the team competitive, rather than surrendering 30+ in four straight games.

This is a team that should contend for 6-6 or 7-5 this season. They have quarterback talent, some experience up front, and threatening players in the skill corps. The defense returns production and has an X-Factor in Corleone. It just all has to come together, and 2025 is the season it should (if it ever will under Satterfield).

Worst Case Scenario For Cincinnati

On the flip side, Satterfield isn't a coach known for getting that extra 20% out of his teams. In his last three years at Louisville (2020-22), Satterfield finished 3-10 in one-score games; at Cincinnati, he's 2-8 – 5-18 over the last five seasons! That's a sign of poor coaching rather than poor execution or just plain bad luck.

Given the sample size, it'd be surprising to see Cincinnati turn in a 4-1 record in those one-score affairs this season. This year, I project eight one-score games, six of which the Bearcats could be underdogs in. Satterfield isn't the coach to inspire me to flip many (if any) of those into wins. And therin lies the concern with Cincinnati.

The Bearcats could start the year 2-3 with a stretch against UCF and Oklahoma State – winnable games, but both may require some scrappiness on Cincinnati's part. Should they drop both of those, the Bearcats are staring down 2-5 heading into a homecoming game with Baylor (whom I project highly) and that's where things could unravel.

Cincinnati's hanging on by a thread and it's a team where, if things don't go perfectly, the season could come undone very quickly. There's a path to 4-8 here.

2025 Cincinnati Bearcats Schedule

*Game against Nebraska played at neutral Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.