TCU vs. Arizona State Prediction and Game Preview

Arizona State hosts TCU in a massive Big 12 showdown on Friday night for Week 5 of the 2025 college football season. The Sun Devils and Horned Frogs were projected as two of the top contenders in the Big 12 this preseason, so Friday night’s contest could help in sorting out the conference pecking order.  

TCU opened ‘25 with a dominant 48-14 victory over North Carolina. Coach Sonny Dykes’ squad followed that victory up with an easy 42-21 win over Abilene Christian on Sept. 13 and a 35-24 victory against rival SMU last Saturday. This year marks just the second time since ‘18 the Horned Frogs have started a season 3-0.

After cruising to a 38-19 victory over Northern Arizona in Week 1, Arizona State suffered a 24-20 setback at Mississippi State. However, coach Kenny Dillingham’s team is back on track following victories over Texas State (34-15) and Baylor (27-24). Friday night’s matchup marks the beginning of a tough stretch for the Sun Devils. After TCU, Arizona State plays at Utah and then hosts Texas Tech. The Sun Devils also travel to Iowa State on Nov. 1.

Arizona State holds a 2-0 series edge over TCU. The Sun Devils and Horned Frogs have not played since 1975. Friday night’s game also marks the first meeting between these two teams as Big 12 members. Keep reading to get our insights on the game, including Athlon’s TCU vs. Arizona State prediction.

TCU vs. Arizona State Odds and Info 

Location: Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, Ariz.
Kickoff: Friday, Sept. 26 at 9 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Spread: Arizona State -3
Over/Under: 55.5
Announcers: Tim Brando, Devin Gardner, Josh Sims 

TCU vs. Arizona State Keys to Victory

1. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover
This game features two of the Big 12’s top quarterbacks with Hoover and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt squaring off. Hoover enters Friday night’s game ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in passing yardage a contest (333.3) and has passed for 11 touchdowns to only two picks. The junior is also completing 68 percent of his throws so far and ranks 13th nationally with an average of 9.7 yards per attempt.

Arizona State entered ‘25 with one of the top defensive backfields in the Big 12 and has limited each of its first four opponents under 279 passing yards. However, this unit has displayed some vulnerability. The Sun Devils have allowed eight passing scores and three plays of 40-plus yards through the air. Also, standout safety Xavion Alford will be sidelined for the third game in a row due to injury.

With Hoover playing at a high level, along with a trio of receivers in Eric McAlister (24.6 yards per catch), Jordan Dwyer (15 receptions), and Joseph Manjack IV (nine), the Sun Devils’ secondary will have its hands full on Friday night. 

2. The Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson Connection for Arizona State
After closing 2024 on a tear, Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt is off to a bit of a slow start this year. Through four games, Leavitt is completing 61 percent of his throws and has tossed six touchdowns to three picks. However, Leavitt is averaging only 187 yards a game through the air and has just one connection of 40-plus yards. The Oregon native has maintained his ability to make plays on the ground with 219 rushing yards and four scores.

Tyson is Leavitt’s unquestioned No. 1 target with 31 receptions for 357 yards and five touchdown catches. The Leavitt-Tyson connection will be a tough matchup for a TCU defense ranked No. 105 nationally in pass defense success rate and one that has surrendered the most passing plays of 30-plus yards (nine) in the Big 12. Leavitt and Tyson both need big days for the Sun Devils to win, but the Horned Frogs can match this duo by forcing some of the other weapons to step up. Tight end Chamon Metayer (13 catches) and receivers Derek Eusebio (two) and Malik McClain (four) are capable targets. Can Arizona State get enough out of the secondary weapons to take the pressure off of Tyson?

3. Which Defense Can Make Timely Stops?
With two talented quarterbacks and standout weapons at receiver, whichever defense can do enough on third downs, in the red zone, or at forcing a takeaway or two, is likely to be enough to get the victory. Entering Friday’s game, both teams have been vulnerable at times (TCU No. 71 in defensive success rate and Arizona State No. 80 on defense).

Could balance also matter? TCU won’t have running back Kevorian Barnes due to injury, while Arizona State’s ground game (No. 3 in the Big 12) has started to find its rhythm behind Raleek Brown (372 yards), Kanye Udoh (156), and Kyson Brown (93). The Sun Devils are tied for first in the Big 12 in sacks (13), which could come into play if the Horned Frogs are unable to get much going on the ground and too much pressure is on Hoover’s arm.

Final Score Prediction: TCU 31, Arizona State 27

This early-season Big 12 contest will have major implications for the conference title chase. Arizona State’s win over Baylor last week solidified Dillingham’s program at the top of the league once again, while a victory here would do the same for TCU in its ‘25 Big 12 opener. With two standout quarterbacks and defenses with some question marks, this one will go down to the wire.

ATS: TCU +3
Over/Under: Over 55.5