TCU vs Kansas State Prediction: Saturday's Best Big 12 Game?

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Oct 11, 2025 3:11 AM ET

Kansas State might be a disappointing 2-4, but it could just as easily be 4-2, or even 6-0. Five of the six games were decided by six points or fewer, and four were decided by less than four points.

TCU blasted North Carolina and Abilene Christian, but it got into a tough fight with SMU, lost a thriller at Arizona State, and didn't get comfortable against Colorado last week until late.

These two should put on a whale of a battle in Manhattan.

Kansas State - like every other week after the opening loss to Iowa State - is in a must-win situation to stay reasonably alive for a bowl game.

TCU has to keep pace with the top teams in the Big 12 to be in the hunt for the conference title.

TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas State Wildcats Preview

How To Watch TCU vs Kansas State

Saturday, October 11, 2025
Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS

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Why TCU Will Win

The offense continues to be a machine.

Josh Hoover is playing as well as any quarterback in America; few are better at converting third downs, and the attack continues to be relentless.

There isn't enough of a running game, but the passing attack is keeping the mistakes to a minimum - the three turnover day was in the loss to Arizona State - and it'll keep on coming.

The defense hasn't been anything amazing, but the pass rush is among the best in the Big 12. However ...

Why Kansas State Will Win

Kansas State is keeping everyone in the backfield upright.

The ground game is just starting to roll - it's averaging close to five yards per carry, tearing up UCF a few weeks ago - and the pass protection has been wonderful.

There's a good pace to the attack, and there aren't many mistakes. The penalties are kept to a bare minimum, and while there are turnovers, the offense hasn't given it up twice since Ireland against Iowa State.

However ...

Which Pass Defense Will Hold Up?

Kansas State won't have to worry too much about the TCU ground game, but it can't let Hoover go off.

Wildcat quarterback Avery Johnson will go off. He'll keep up with Hoover and the Horned Frogs, but can the running game work?

Kansas State is 2-0 when running for more than 4.5 yards per carry, and 0-4 when it doesn't.

TCU only allowed more than four yards per carry once, and that was in the loss to Arizona State. Kansas State will throw, but it'll also commit to the ground game from the start.

TCU vs Kansas State Prediction, Betting Lines

Kansas State 27, TCU 24
Line: TCU -1.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Must See Rating: 4

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

- Bowl Projections

This article first appeared on College Football News and was syndicated with permission.

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