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Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction 2025 Alan Poizner-Imagn Images

Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction: Who wins, and why?

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By James Parks | Last updated Oct 25, 2025 1:30 PM ET

Tennessee and Kentucky face off in one of the SEC’s classic rivalry games as college football’s Week 9 action gets underway, so let’s lock in our prediction for the game.

Tennessee is in something of a bind after falling to 2-2 in SEC competition with losses to Georgia and Alabama that could play a role in keeping them out of playoff consideration unless they don’t add on some style points the rest of the way and hope for some chaos.

Kentucky is in a much worse way, dipping to 0-4 in conference games this season and ranks 192nd in the country in scoring, but have some glimmer of hope in quarterback Cutter Boley, who had 258 yards against Texas, and tailback Seth McGowan is putting up around 80 yards per game.

What can we expect as the Volunteers hit the road against the Wildcats this weekend? Here’s what you should watch for as Tennessee and Kentucky renew their rivalry.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction: What to watch

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1. Tennessee Offensive Consistency

Tennessee’s offense, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, continues to rank among the nation’s most productive units, averaging 44.1 points per game — second nationally — and over 310 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through seven games.

Kentucky’s air defense is a mixed bag, ranking 81st in total yards allowed to opponents, but has allowed just 3 touchdowns, the fewest in FBS.

Running back DeSean Bishop’s 604 rushing yards (7.8 yards per carry) adds balance, giving the Volunteers one of the SEC’s most explosive dual-attack offenses.

Against a Kentucky defense allowing 25.8 points per game, Tennessee’s tempo and red-zone efficiency present the primary mismatch.

2. Kentucky’s Offensive Limitations

Kentucky enters the game ranked near the bottom nationally at 109th in total offense and 104th in scoring, averaging just 22.5 points per game.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Cutter Boley has shown flashes with a strong 79 percent completion rate but has struggled against better defenses.

Running back Seth McGowan anchors the Wildcat offense, totaling 476 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, but limited passing production has allowed opponents to stack the box, stifling Kentucky’s scoring potential.

3. Defensive Imbalance and Turnover Differential

Tennessee’s defense remains a weak link, giving up 30.4 points per game — 110th nationally — compared to Kentucky’s 25.8 points allowed, which ranks 52nd.

However, Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers (12, at 21st nationally) offsets some of its lapses, while Kentucky has created only six (98th in FBS).

This turnover margin could serve as a consequential factor: if Tennessee’s pressure leads to short fields, it further magnifies Kentucky’s offensive inefficiency, reinforcing the Volunteers’ edge.

Who is favored?

The betting markets have been consistent in calling the Volunteers a dominant favorite over the Wildcats, but not by as much as double digits.

Tennessee is an 7.5 favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -300 and for Kentucky at +245 to win outright.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction: Who wins?

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Tennessee commands the SEC’s most explosive offense, pacing the conference in first downs and scoring average, while Aguilar leads the nation’s sixth-ranked air attack, and the ground game is good for more than 200 yards on average.

Don’t overlook Kentucky’s defense, though. It just had one of its best games in years against Texas, a three-point loss in overtime, and they’ve played the Vols close recently, with the last six games at Lexington decided by 6 or fewer points.

But that offense is still yet to eclipse more than 2 touchdowns in a game in a dozen SEC appearances while being directed by coordinator Bush Hamdan. Advantage, Vols.

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