Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction: This Will Be A Big Story

If Tennessee wins, everything is back on track. Lose, and the always-tolerant Vol fan base is sure to write it off as a disappointing outing on a lovely Saturday afternoon.

If Mississippi State loses, it’s uh-oh time with three of the next four games on the road, followed by Georgia, Missouri, and Ole Miss.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State How To Watch

Saturday, September 27, 2025
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
TV: SEC Network
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
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Why Tennessee Will Win

Mississippi State, welcome to the Tennessee passing game. The world is in love with Sam Leavitt, but Arizona State ran the ball on the Bulldogs. The Sun Devils pounded away, Leavitt didn’t do anything down the field, and it almost worked.

The other three teams on the MSU schedule don’t have any sort of high-powered attack. That’s where Tennessee comes in, with Joey Aguilar doing a nice job over the first four games of keeping things moving. The ground attack is helping.

The Vols hit the 235-yard mark rushing in three of the first four games, and they’ll take all the pressure off Aguilar by setting up manageable third down situations. But …

Why Mississippi State Will Win

Mississippi State’s offense is humming.

Granted, Arizona State is the only restaurant-quality team on the schedule so far, but the Bulldogs have been able to move without a problem - for the most part - the running game has been good enough, and Blake Shapen and the passing game have been tested.

As good as the Tennessee defense is overall, it’s getting roasted lately through the air. Gunner Stockton and Georgia went off when they needed to, and even though the game was never in doubt, the UAB all-pass attack was connecting in last week's loss.

Will Mississippi State or Tennessee Ever Have the Ball

So you like good, slow, grinding, true-American, blood-and-guts, three-plays-and-punt football that relies on field position and good defense, right?

You’re not welcome here. Neither team cares a lick about the time of possession battle. The lack of a rocking Mississippi State pass rush will matter this week.

Both of them will move with pace, they’ll trade plenty of body blows with quick scoring drives, and then, when push really does come to shove, it’ll be the Tennessee ground attack that takes the air out of the ball late to get out alive.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction, Betting Lines

Tennessee 38, Mississippi State 30
Line: Tennessee -7.5, o/u: 62.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 4

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. 

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