Texas A&M vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

SEC rivals meet in The Southwest Classic this weekend as No. 24 Texas A&M faces off against Arkansas with both teams looking to avoid their first loss in conference play as college football’s Week 5 action gets underway on Saturday.

Just 8 points away from being undefeated after a road loss against a ranked Oklahoma State a few weeks ago, the Razorbacks have won 2 straight, including the SEC opener at Auburn, averaging over 40 points per game and top-25 in both rushing and passing with dual-threat Taylen Green at quarterback.

Since a 10-point loss to Notre Dame in the opener, the Aggies have won 3 in a row, including on the road to Florida, behind an offensive attack that is strong in one dimension, if not the other.

A&M boasts a ground game that ranks No. 8 nationally, but struggles when putting the ball in the air behind reserve quarterback Marcel Reed, in for the injured Conner Weigman, averaging 116th among 134 FBS teams with 162 yards each time out.

What can we make of the matchup? Here’s what you should watch out for as Arkansas and Texas A&M meet in this SEC rivalry, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas prediction, preview

1. Stopping the QB. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is a credible dual threat, but has struggled throwing the ball against FBS defenses, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt while completing 51 percent of his throws with 2 TDs and 3 interceptions. 

And in a win at Auburn last week, Green hit just 43% of his passes and averaged 5.4 yards per play with 1 TD and 2 picks. Now he goes against a strong Aggies front seven that can jostle the passer with regularity behind edge rushers like Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart and have the size and burst to contest the Razorbacks’ outside blockers.

2. Turnovers. A&M started off minus-2 in the turnover department against the Irish, but have rebounded since then, creating 6 takeaways from the opposition while giving it back only once, and ball security could be the decisive advantage this week.

Arkansas has struggled to keep the ball at times this season, suffering through 6 turnovers in its last 3 games, and are susceptible when Green is under intense pressure and forces a throw.

If the Aggies can profit from their matchup edge at the line, they can get Green out of his rhythm and allow their defensive backs to get in position for a takeaway.

3. Battle at the line. Texas A&M is strong running the ball, ranking 8th nationally with 265 yards per game on average. Lead back Le’Veon Moss is posting almost 89 yards himself and quarterback Marcel Reed is averaging nearly 73. Good blocking has been integral to that success.

But the A&M line has a relative weakness protecting the pass, allowing 24 quarterback pressures, ranking 9th in the SEC, and Reed had moments where he struggled last week.

The job gets harder against an Arkansas front seven led by edge rusher Landon Jackson, a superb pressure man who could line up on either side of the line this week in a variety of looks.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models project Texas A&M will come out ahead of Arkansas in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas A&M is projected to win the game in the majority 56.2 percent of the computer’s updated simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas a close contender, winning out in the remaining 43.8 percent of sims.

Expect a close game, as Texas A&M is expected to be just 2.2 points better than Arkansas on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas A&M vs. Arkansas prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Texas A&M is a 5.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game.

And its set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -220 and for Arkansas at +180 to win outright.

About 60 percent of bettors currently favor Arkansas to either win in an upset, or to keep the game within the point spread.

40 percent of wagers expect Texas A&M to win the game and cover the spread.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas prediction

On paper, these rivals match up pretty evenly when it comes to rushing the football, stopping the other team from running it, and are each questionable when it comes to passing efficiency.

Arkansas back Ja’Quinden Jackson is tops in the SEC with 118 rushing yards per game and he, combined with Green, are a formidable rushing threat against a good A&M front seven.

They’ll have help as the Hogs throw bodies at the Aggies’ edge blockers and frustrate Reed’s attempt at developing a rhythm throwing the ball in the early going.

But A&M still has a blocking advantage, allowing just 8 tackles for loss, the fewest nationally, is churning out solid gains on the ground, and the defensive front will rattle Green at the line and close down his deeper throwing lanes.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas A&M wins 27-23
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Arkansas vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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