Sep 13, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) warms up before a game against the Texas El Paso Miners at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Texas Longhorns Predicted to Meet In-State Rival in CFP

Originally posted on Texas Longhorns on SI
By Jon Alfano | Last updated Sep 30, 2025 6:57 PM ET

Prior to the season, the Texas Longhorns were not only seen as a near-lock to make the College Football Playoff for the third-straight season, but possibly the most popular pick to win it all. Now, though, their outlook is a bit more bleak.

The Longhorns have had a somewhat underwhelming start to the season, as they lost their highly anticipated opener against Ohio State and their offense is still figuring things out. All their goals are still ahead of them and they'll have more than a few chances to add to their resume, but they don't quite look like the juggernaut many thought they'd be.

However, many CFP projections still have them in the field, and one of the newest features a very intriguing matchup.

Texas Longhorns on Collision Course With Texas Tech?

Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

In Sports Illustrated's latest CFP projections, the Longhorns come in as the No. 11 seed and travel to face the No. 6 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first round. Of course, these two in-state rivals have been going at it for nearly a century now, but the Longhorns' recent move to the SEC has put the rivalry on hold indefinitely. However, that makes a potential CFP matchup all the more fascinating.

"Welcome back to the field, Longhorns," SI's Bryan Fischer wrote. "While the offense still needs to find a rhythm, the Texas defense looks like one of the best in the SEC and there are a ton of chances to beat quality opponents over the coming weeks. If Texas winds up going to Lubbock for a first-round game, there may not be any tortillas within 100 miles of campus."

The Longhorns lead the all-time series 55-18, and won five of the last six matchups in the Big 12. The last game was a 57-7 blowout victory for Texas at Darrell K Royal on Nov. 24, 2023, in which Arch Manning actually made his Longhorns debut during garbage time.

That said, this year's Red Raiders team is not like the ones that the Longhorns knew. Joey McGuire's squad looks like the class of the Big 12 as of now, starting 4-0 and coming off a 34-10 road win against Utah on Sept. 20. The Red Raiders are also becoming more and more of a recruiting threat, so they're well set up to be a threat for a long time to come.

These two teams have produced some excellent games over the years, and it's a safe assumption that a CFP meeting would have plenty of fireworks as well.

This article first appeared on Texas Longhorns on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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