Texas vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

Texas hits the road in its SEC opener against Florida as college football’s Week 6 action kicks off on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from a series of expert models that simulate games and pick winners.

Arch Manning already has one road start under his belt, but it’s one that he and the Longhorns prefer to forget, after the quarterback looked out of sorts in a loss at Ohio State in the season opener back in August.

Manning has improved somewhat since then, but questions remain around the former No. 1 overall recruit’s decision making, throwing motion, consistency, and accuracy as he heads into his first career SEC start away from home.

He’ll be tested by a Florida defense that, despite what the team’s dismal 1-3 record would indicate, has played well enough to keep this team in those eventual losses.

Unfortunately, the Gators’ offense has failed to live up to its preseason billing, ranking 104th nationally in scoring and failing to score more than 16 points in any of its losses despite the presence of five-star quarterback DJ Lagway and an experienced line.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Longhorns visit the Gators this week?

For that, let’s turn to some of the most trusted prediction models to get a preview of how Texas and Florida compare in this Week 6 college football game.

Who is favored?

As might be expected, the visiting team is getting the nod as the favorite this weekend.

Texas is a 4.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -194 and for Florida at +162 to win outright.

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Texas vs. Florida implied score

The game’s implied score suggests a victory for the Longhorns on the road against the Gators, but by a pretty close margin in the SEC opener.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Texas will defeat Florida by a projected score of 24 to 19.

The updated betting lines correctly predicted the outright winner of the game 82.3 percent of the time, but covered the spread in just 35 percent of outcomes.

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Texas vs. Florida SP+ score prediction

As could be expected, the SP+ prediction model is siding with the Longhorns over the Gators, but by a wider margin than the odds would indicate.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Florida outright by a projected score of 26 to 17 and will win the game by an expected margin of 9.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Longhorns a solid 73 percent chance of outright victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 119-127 against the spread with a 48.4 win percentage.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Texas is a big favorite on the index, coming out ahead in 75.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 24.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be 7.9 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 80.3 percent of all games and hit 35 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to pick the game

Texas enters as a modest favorite, but the advanced models clearly lean in the Longhorns’ direction.

Florida’s offense has struggled with consistency, while Texas brings a more balanced, disciplined approach on both sides of the ball.

With a perceived edge in efficiency and execution, Texas is the smarter play to win and cover in what’s likely to be a lower-scoring, defensive battle.

• Texas -4.5
• Longhorns -194
• Bet over 42.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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