Texas vs. Ohio State score prediction by expert football model

A top-three matchup for the ages from one of college football’s great venues, as No. 1 Texas tangles with No. 3 Ohio State from the Horseshoe in a marquee clash to open the 2025 college football season. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert football analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Arch Manning finally takes the reins for good as the starting quarterback for Texas, under enormous pressure to live up to his family name and that No. 1 ranking as a recruit, leading the SEC title favorites on the road against the reigning national champs.

These blue-bloods meet on Saturday in a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal round, when Ohio State dramatically edged out Texas thanks to a well-timed defensive play where Jack Sawyer stripped Quinn Ewers and ran all the way into Buckeye lore for a touchdown.

Much of the personnel from that game is gone now, at least on Ohio State’s side, as the champs have to replace not only both coordinators, but their quarterback, two thousand-yard rushers, three key blockers, and an elite edge rushing duo.

What remains isn’t exactly nothing. Jeremiah Smith, regarded as the best wide receiver in college football, returns to lead a rotation that could be the most talented in the country once again, with former five-star quarterback prospect Julian Sayin, a former Nick Saban recruit at Alabama, now at the helm in this offense.

Ohio State’s pass defense should be in top form once again, with Alabama transfer safety Caleb Downs back to reprise his role in this secondary, and they’ll face a group of Texas skill threats that have the potential to stretch the field and cause trouble.

The key matchup to watch on the field should be the Longhorns’ front seven defensive tacklers against the Buckeyes’ new-look blocking rotation in front of a quarterback who sorely lacks the experience of his predecessor.

Colin Simmons and Anthony Hill lead a Texas defense that could finish as the nation’s best and might be the engine that takes this team back to the SEC Championship Game.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Longhorns and Buckeyes get back on the same field again?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Ohio State compare in this Week 1 college football game.

Texas vs. Ohio State score prediction

For now, it appears the models are still siding with the home team in this rematch from last season’s Cotton Bowl, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Texas by a projected score of 27 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 6.3 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Buckeyes a solid 65 percent chance of outright victory at home, while the Longhorns forecast at 35 percent odds to pull off the upset.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

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How to bet Texas vs. Ohio State

The sportsbooks have kept the Buckeyes on as the favorites over the Longhorns, but by margins that grow closer by the day as bettors put money on the burnt orange.

Ohio State is now a 1.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -111 and for Texas at -111 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ohio State -1.5
• Buckeyes to win -111
• Bet over 46.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bets in this matchup.

A slight majority of bettors are backing the Longhorns to take care of business against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 56 percent of bets to either beat Ohio State outright in an upset, or to lose the matchup by a single point.

The other 44 percent of wagers project the Buckeyes will be able to take down the Longhorns by at least two points and cover the narrow point spread.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are taking the other side of this matchup, and giving a slight edge to the SEC challenger against its Big Ten counterpart here.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

That system is giving the Longhorns the benefit of the doubt, but it’s very close.

Texas came out ahead in the slight majority 53.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Ohio State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Like other models, this one expects Saturday’s matchup to come down to the wire.

Texas is projected to be just 0.7 points better than Ohio State on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

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College Football HQ prediction

If continuity is key to repeating as national champions, then the Buckeyes are in trouble.

Not only do they have to replace so many of the key on-field personnel who were critical to their national title run a year ago, but perhaps more importantly, they have to fill two major holes among the play-callers who helped put this team in position.

Granted, their replacements aren’t exactly green. Brian Hartline, the Buckeyes’ very highly respected recruiter, steps in to commandeer the offense, and Bill Belichick protege Matt Patricia succeeds Jim Knowles to spearhead this defense.

Most other programs would give their right arm for that combination, but we’re yet to see if they can fit the bill against an opponent of the Longhorns’ caliber.

Texas maintains its coaching continuity from a year ago, while on the field they return a front seven rotation that could have a considerable advantage against Ohio State along the line of scrimmage.

Simmons and Hill will have Sayin in their sights from the first snap and the Buckeyes face a serious challenge keeping them off their quarterback. Too serious, perhaps.

College Football HQ picks: Texas to beat Ohio State in an upset.

More... Texas vs. Ohio State prediction: Who wins, and why?

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How to watch Texas vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Ohio State

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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