The Four Big Questions About Cal’s 2025 Football Season

Four simple questions address the key challenges facing Cal heading into its 2025 football season, and four not-so-simple answers are provided by California Golden Bears on SI reporters Jeff Faraudo and Jake Curtis:

Will Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele have a good season?

Jeff: Sagapolutele will experience growing pains from time to time, but unless he is injured -- or the Bears roll out a creative trick play involving backup Devin Brown -- I expect Sagapolutele to be the Bears' starter all season. He is an investment in the future and they have to nurture him. He has great arm talent, appears to have the temperament to handle the pressure he will face, and he has a competent offensive staff to support him. Sagapolutele won't match the 3,508 passing yards Jared Goff totaled as a freshman but if the Bears finish winning record his season should be judged a success.

Jake: Sagapolutele will struggle in some of the early-season games, but I expect Cal to stick with him. By midseason I anticipate that Sagapolutele will be a viable major-conference quarterback. He will not be a star in Year One, but he’ll show flashes of star-power potential. Justin Wilcox did not choose Sagapolutele based on long-term potential, though. He can’t afford to. He sees Sagapolutele as his best option to win this year. If Sagapolutele is impressive this season, the question will be whether Sagapolutele stays at Cal or transfers. He seems to be loyal to Cal, but with the possible monetary options out there, it may be a difficult decision. Cal can only hope Sagapolutele is productive enough this year to warrant that kind of attention from other schools.

Will Cal get to a bowl game for the third straight year?

Jeff: Reaching a bowl game is not a high bar these days, and I expect Cal will qualify. To demonstrate the progress everyone is seeking, they need a victory in the bowl game and to finish with a winning record.

Jake: Cal will get to a bowl game, partly because it has an attractive schedule that does not include games against Clemson and Miami. The Bears may just get the six regular-season wins to qualify for a bowl, so it will be close, just as it was the past two years.

Will Cal have a winning conference record for the first time since 2009?

Jeff: I'm going to hedge my bets here and suggest they could assemble a .500 record in the ACC. That would 4-4. The schedule is favorable in that Cal does not play either Clemson or Miami -- regarded as the league's two best teams. There are some winnable games, but the Bears had winnable ACC games last year that they lost -- four of them by a combined nine points. Reversing those outcomes is a primary goal this season. Win some close ones and 4-4 is within reach.

Jake: The Bears’ ACC schedule certainly suggests they could end their streak of 15 straight seasons with losing conference records. The Bears need to win close games, something they did not do last year. Games against Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Stanford look like winnable games for Cal. Winning all five would get the Bears to 5-3 in ACC play, which would be their first winning conference record since 2009. A 4-4 conference record is more realistic, and that .500 mark would at least end the long run of losing conference records. But a 3-5 record in the ACC seems the most likely finish, which would mean a 16th consecutive season with a losing conference record. It's worth noting that there are more unknowns about this Cal team than for any Cal team in recent memory.

Will Cal head coach Justin Wilcox be fired after this season?

Jeff: If the Bears finish with another losing record, it's likely Wilcox will be sent walking. The chancellor has said a .500 record is not good enough. New GM Ron Rivera defines success this season as eight or nine wins. Without having seen them play, I think the Bears could win their four non-conference games, which means even going 3-5 in the ACC gets them to 7-5 before a bowl game. That would demonstrate enough tangible progress to keep Wilcox on board for a 10th season.

Jake: Obviously, this depends on how the Golden Bears fare this season and whether noticeable progress is being made. Expectations of Chancellor Rich Lyons and football general manager Ron Rivera are for more than just a .500 season. However, Wilcox’s contract runs through the 2027 season, which adds financial considerations. That being said, I expect Wilcox to be Cal’s head coach in 2026 unless the Bears finish with something like a 4-8 record or look particularly bad late in the season.

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