Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel high-fives fans during the Vol Walk before a game between Tennessee and Florida in Neyland Stadium, in Knoxville, Tenn., Oct. 12, 2024. Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This One Stat Shows Why Josh Heupel Will Have Success with Joey Aguilar at QB

Originally posted on Tennessee Volunteers on SI
By Shayne Pickering | Last updated Aug 20, 2025 7:05 AM ET

The game of football often comes down to a couple of things: the quarterback, the line of scrimmage play, sudden change, and one possession game outcomes.

The last item mentioned amongst that list has been a defining statistic of the success of the Tennessee football program under Josh Heupel , with the jump in winning percentage having a direct correlation to the winning percentage in one possession games despite constant turnover at the quarterback position.

In year one of the Heupel era, Tennessee went 7-6 on the season, dropping games many would argue the team should have won. The record in one possession games that year: 1-3.

That season came with quarterback movement throughout the season and there was loss of confidence surrounding the program coming out of an investigation.

Heupel put an end to that quickly and instilled confidence into his program which allowed for a complete 360 in the outcomes of close games and the Vols have won at least nine games every year since.

TENNESSEE TAKES DOWN ALABAMA AND THE FANS ARE STORMING THE FIELD AT NEYLAND STADIUM.

WHAT A WIN FOR THE VOLS. pic.twitter.com/1MkxrkyxBA
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 15, 2022

The following season, the record for Tennessee jumped to 11-2 with several statement wins for the program that entrenched Heupel and his legacy in Knoxville.

What was the record in one possession games that season? Three wins and zero losses.

That trend continues into the next two years with Tennessee going 2-0 and 2-1 in one possessions games in those respective seasons.

TENNESSEE GETS THE OT VICTORY AGAINST FLORIDA

A SHOWDOWN IN ROCKY TOP pic.twitter.com/afF09yzvlB
— ESPN (@espn) October 13, 2024

After going 1-3 one score games in year one, Heupel has since gone 7-1 in such games while, perhaps even more significant, using three different quarterbacks to lead his offense.

That is three different sample seasons with a new leader each year. The one constant has been and is Josh Heupel, who is still running the ship at Tennessee.

Joey Aguilar is the latest in the run of quarterbacks and his new head coach has proven he can win tough games that come down to the wire.

There are understandably plenty of questions surrounding the almost entirely new offensive core, but Josh Heupel has done enough to earn continued strong expectations with his offense moving forward until proven otherwise.

The question is how many wins will that equate to this season for Tennessee football.