Sep 6, 2025; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Three Last-Minute Iowa Predictions vs. UMass

Originally posted on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI
By Jordon Lawrenz | Last updated Sep 13, 2025 9:30 AM ET

Iowa's second home game of the season comes against UMass. The Minutemen are 0-2 in 2025 after dropping games to Temple and Bryant. They fell, 27-26 last week though the Bulldogs are nowhere near the competition the Hawkeyes dropped a game to last week. Iowa's 16-13 loss to No. 16 Iowa State still stings, though it's a game they can learn from and move on.

The Cyclones were able to move up to No. 14 after taking down the Hawkeyes last week. Iowa State improved to 3-0 on the season with a key win over No. 17 Kansas State in Week 0. Iowa's Week 3 matchup against UMass is a step down in competition, though it's a necessary game to get everyone back on track with No. 22 Indiana looming in two weeks.

1. Mark Gronowski Will Once Again Throw For Less Than 100 Yards

If you're a fan of QB play, look away. The Hawkeyes simply aren't for you. The last thing Iowa wants to do is change their identity and become an air-raid style offense. In no world should Gronowski be throwing the ball 20-30 times a game. The senior QB has just 127 passing yards in the team's first two games. The South Dakota State transfer is 21-39 with a touchdown and an interception.

UMass allowed 191 rushing yards in their Week 1 loss to Temple. Knowing how much of a priority the Hawkeyes' running game is, HC Kirk Ferentz is likely drawing up the game of his life. Last week, Bryant took a much different approach against the Minutemen. QB Brennan Myer threw for 318 yards, though the team still had 81 yards on the ground.

2. Iowa Secures Their First Interception of the Season

So far, Iowa's defense has forced just one turnover. Senior linebacker Jaden Harrell forced a fumble as defensive back Koen Entringer recovered it. The junior is one to keep an eye on as the lone interception of his career came last season.

No matter who's able to come away with the interception, Week 3 feels like the perfect time. Iowa's defense has been stingy against QB's. Both Jack Shields of Albany and the Cyclones Rocco Becht threw for 134 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. Knowing both of UMass's QB's have thrown an interception, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Iowa doesn't record an interception. Remember, they had 16 last season.

3. Iowa Wins, But Fails to Cover

Even though this is a Big 10 vs. MAC matchup, it's hard for any team to come out on top by 35.5 points. The spread favors the Hawkeyes, and rightfully so, but they haven't won by 36+ points since Week 1 last season. That game saw them defeat Illinois State, 40-0.

With the point total sitting at 43.5, this game would need to see a similar result to that. It's highly unlikely that this Hawkeyes defense gives up many points to the Minutemen, but it remains to be seen how many points they can put up against them. So far this season, Iowa is 1-1 despite outscoring their opponents 47-23.

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